Chevron Poised to Boost US Crude Supply with Venezuelan Oil Restart

Chevron (CVX) is poised to significantly boost US crude supply by restarting Venezuelan oil production and export, with analysts predicting a 7.14% upside to $165.72. The company has received an "Outperform" rating and a GF Value of $153.56, suggesting minimal downside. This development is expected to expedite operations and increase the flow of crude to major refiners.

Chevron Corporation (CVX) is set to significantly enhance the U.S. crude supply chain by restarting oil production and exports from Venezuela. This move, authorized by the U.S. government, is expected to increase Chevron's output by approximately 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to analysts [2]. The authorization comes after a series of negotiations between the U.S. and Venezuela, which included the release of American detainees and the return of Venezuelans held in El Salvador [1].

The restart of Chevron's operations in Venezuela is part of a broader shift in U.S. policy towards the country. The move is designed to balance geopolitical considerations with energy security and price management. While the Trump administration had previously revoked Chevron's license to pump oil in Venezuela, the recent authorization allows the company to resume production and exports, with assurances that no royalties or taxes will benefit the Maduro regime [1].

Analysts have predicted a 7.14% upside to Chevron's stock price, with an average one-year price target of $165.72. The company has received an "Outperform" rating from Wall Street analysts, with a GF Value of $153.56, suggesting minimal downside [2]. The authorization is expected to expedite Chevron's operations and increase the flow of crude to major refiners, including Valero Energy and Phillips 66 [2].

The decision to restart Chevron's operations in Venezuela is likely to impact the broader energy market. Increased supplies from Venezuela could add to the existing threat of oversupply in the market, potentially affecting oil prices. However, the timing of the restart may be too late for U.S. refiners to fully capitalize on the additional supply, as preventive maintenance at refineries typically reduces demand during the summer months [1].

U.S. refiners are now navigating a volatile supply landscape shaped by shifting political winds. The return to Venezuelan crude could complement or complicate their longer-term rebalancing strategies, depending on the pace and extent of Chevron's production resumption [3].

References:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-24/us-allows-chevron-to-restart-pumping-oil-in-venezuela
[2] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3006114/chevron-cvx-set-to-boost-us-crude-supply-with-venezuelan-oil-resumption
[3] https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Refiners-Rethink-Crude-Sourcing-After-Chevron-Gets-Venezuela-Green-Light.html