Charts Worth 1000 Words: Goldman Strategist Called April Bottom, Now Exits

Let’s take a look at some intriguing recent financial charts, Starting with U.S. equities:

On April 7, when Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement rocked global markets and the S&P 500 experienced sharp consecutive declines, Goldman Sachs Chief Strategist Josh Schiffrin accurately predicted the market had bottomed. U.S. stocks subsequently rebounded sharply, rewarding investors who bought the dip handsomely.

Notably, after successfully calling the market bottom, Josh Schiffrin has now decided to close positions and exit. In his latest report, he shifted from a bullish to a neutral view on U.S. equities, expecting the market to enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Current prices have fully priced in optimism around trade prospects, which may be offset by weak upcoming economic data. Following the strong rebound, the market may now go through a period of sideways volatility before continuing upward.

As shown in the chart below, since 1980, rebounds during global bear markets have lasted an average of 44 days with an average gain of 14%. The S&P 500 has already rebounded 18% from its intraday low on April 7. If history is any guide, this sharp rebound may have exhausted its upside potential.

U.S. stocks have regained all the ground lost since Trump’s reciprocal tariff move, yet Warren Buffett has remained on the sidelines—Berkshire Hathaway’s cash reserves surged to $348 billion in Q1. What does the “Oracle of Omaha” see?

The market is also voting with its feet. Goldman Sachs estimates that since early March, foreign investors have sold $63 billion worth of U.S. stocks, with European investors leading the selloff. However, U.S. equities have proven resilient: since 1980, there have been 10 major foreign capital outflows from U.S. stocks—7 of those times, the market still rose.

Now let’s turn to European equities:

Historical data on geopolitical conflicts and Europe’s defense index performance shows that since the Russia–Ukraine war broke out, the European defense stock index has surged over 400%, according to Goldman Sachs.

European stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks, mainly driven by valuation expansion rather than corporate earnings improvement.

Next, a set of U.S. economic indicators:

Several leading indicators suggest a rebound in U.S. inflation.

Compared with the 2015–2019 average, U.S. corporate retail inventories are currently quite low due to uncertainty caused by tariffs. Many retail categories have only two months of inventory or less. Retailers will now have to restock at higher prices, and those costs will likely be passed on to consumers.

Public expectations for future inflation in the U.S. have surged to their highest level in nearly 40 years.

The U.S. labor market still appears strong, with April’s nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations, but the broader labor outlook has deteriorated significantly. According to a Gallup poll, only 38% of Americans currently believe it is easy to find a good job, while 58% believe it is difficult—just shy of the lowest point during the 2020 pandemic.

Finally, here are a few more key charts:

Don’t panic in a crisis! The best and worst trading days often occur within the same time window. If you sell after a market crash, there’s a high chance you’ll miss the rapid rebound that often follows.

The World Trade Organization forecasts that by 2025, China’s exports to the U.S. will fall by 77%. Meanwhile, China’s exports to all other markets are expected to rise, with exports to the rest of North America projected to increase by 25%.

According to the World Gold Council, by mid-April, North American and European investors had bought about 240 tons of gold via ETFs—more than half of the total 441 tons purchased over the past three years.

Despite U.S. restrictions on high-end chip exports to China, the performance gap between top U.S. and Chinese AI models continues to narrow.