Chart Worth 1000 Words: Uncertainty Roars, Central Banks Rush to Gold

In a time of heightened uncertainty, some of the most revealing economic signals aren't in headlines—they're hidden in charts. Here's what’s caught analysts’ attention this week.

First, here’s a set of charts related to Trump’s tariff policies and the U.S. stock market. In May, a New York Fed survey indicated that nearly 80% of businesses had passed on at least part of the cost of tariffs to consumers. Furthermore, 30% of manufacturing firms and 45% of service companies had passed on 100% of the tariff costs. Can U.S. inflation still be contained?

Due to the volatility of Trump’s trade policies, the use of the word “uncertainty” in S&P 500 companies’ earnings calls and other corporate events hit a record high—surpassing levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.

References to “consumer weakness” in earnings calls also reached an all-time high, signaling growing concerns about the outlook for consumer spending.

Market uncertainty is certainly not what investors want. According to ETF fund flow data tracked by TS Lombard, foreign investors’ interest in allocating to U.S. equity ETFs has significantly weakened since early 2025 and remains subdued.

Since 2021, wage growth in the U.S. healthcare sector has consistently outpaced inflation in medical service prices. Labor costs are the largest expense for healthcare providers, home care, and hospice institutions. This means rising employee costs are outstripping healthcare providers’ pricing power, posing a sustained downside risk to industry profit margins.

Historically, bull markets last an average of 55 months since 1947. However, the third year of a bull market tends to be calm, with an average gain of just 5.2%.

Now let’s look at some gold-related charts. Bloomberg estimates that actual gold purchases by central banks are nearly four times higher than publicly disclosed figures.

Goldman Sachs points out that if market concerns over U.S. creditworthiness intensify, central banks and private investors may accelerate the reduction of their dollar asset holdings and increase gold allocations—potentially triggering a major price reaction in the gold market.

Currently, global gold ETF holdings account for only about 0.5% of U.S. equity ETFs and roughly 1% of U.S. bond ETFs. The market is relatively small, which means even a small shift in allocations from equities or bonds to gold could significantly boost gold prices.

Turning to the U.S. housing market: US home prices moved lower in April, the first monthly decline since September 2022.

What’s putting pressure on prices? Demand remains near record lows due to a lack of affordability while supply has been steadily rising. The total number of homes for sale in the US has increased 16.7% over the last year to the highest inventory levels since March 2020.

Now let’s take a look at some other financial charts:

China’s share in global exports has risen by about 5% compared to pre-pandemic averages, further cementing its dominant position. Europe’s share has declined, while the U.S., Japan, and other economies have remained relatively stable over the past decade.

Wage growth per employee in Japan has accelerated, reaching the fastest pace since the early 1990s. This suggests persistent underlying wage pressure in Japan and reinforces continued service-sector inflation signals.

Funds tracking crypto assets have seen increasing inflows, with total assets under management reaching record levels.

While all market attention is focused on the “Magnificent Seven,” it is small businesses that support half of the U.S. labor market and GDP. Data shows that in March, small businesses with fewer than 250 employees contributed about 80% of the new jobs in the U.S. They also account for 43.5% of U.S. GDP.

The proportion of working-age populations in developed economies continues to decline. However, the overall employment rate has risen significantly since 2000. This suggests that delayed retirement and increased labor force participation have helped offset the negative impact of aging populations on labor supply.

Finally, there is a strong negative correlation (correlation coefficient of -0.60) between the share of government spending in GDP and real per capita GDP growth. On average, a 10 percentage point increase in government spending share corresponds to a 1.21 percentage point decline in long-term economic growth. In the chart below, the x-axis represents the share of government spending in GDP, and the y-axis represents long-term GDP growth.