Chart Industries Skyrocketed 15.5%—What’s Fueling This Record Surge?

Summary
• Baker Hughes announced a $13.6 billion all-cash acquisition of Chart Industries at $210/share, a 22% premium over the last close.
• GTLS surged 16.2% in premarket trading, with intraday gains reaching 15.5% as of 18:56 ET.
• The deal unlocks $325 million in annualized cost synergies and positions Baker Hughes in LNG, data centers, and decarbonization markets.

Chart Industries (GTLS) has delivered one of the most explosive intraday moves of 2025, surging 15.5% as of 18:56 ET on July 29. This surge is driven by Baker Hughes’ $13.6 billion all-cash acquisition, which includes $210/share for Chart shareholders. The deal, announced after Flowserve terminated a prior merger agreement, has triggered a frenzy in the market. With the stock trading at $198.28 (intraday high of $199.50), investors are scrambling to assess the strategic and financial implications of this landmark transaction.

Baker Hughes' $13.6B Bid Ignites GTLS Rally
The 15.5% intraday surge in GTLS stems from Baker Hughes’ definitive agreement to acquire Chart Industries for $210 per share in cash, valuing the company at $13.6 billion. This all-cash deal, which includes $325 million in annualized cost synergies by year three, represents a 22% premium over Chart’s closing price. The transaction accelerates Baker Hughes’ expansion into LNG, data centers, and decarbonization markets, leveraging Chart’s expertise in gas molecule handling and industrial equipment. The news eclipsed Flowserve’s previous $159.98/share offer, which was terminated after Baker Hughes’ proposal was deemed “superior.” The immediate 16.2% premarket jump and continued intraday momentum reflect investor optimism over the strategic fit, financial accretion, and long-term growth potential of the combined entity.

Options Playbook: Leverage GTLS Volatility with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• 200-day average: $165.17 (well below current price)
• RSI: 58.25 (neutral, not overbought)
• MACD: 3.76 (bullish, signal line at 3.90)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $174.64 (far below current price)
• Gamma: 0.1067 (high sensitivity to price swings)

GTLS is trading in a short-term bullish trend, with the 30-day support/resistance range ($171.15–$171.77) and 200-day range ($189.43–$191.50) well below its current intraday high of $199.50. The 52-week high of $220.03 remains a key psychological level. With the stock trading near a 52-week high and the acquisition premium embedded, the near-term outlook favors continued volatility. While no leveraged ETFs are available, options with high gamma and moderate delta offer asymmetric potential.

Top Options Picks:
• GTLS20250815C195
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $195
- Expiration: 2025-08-15
- IV: 11.36% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 45.58% (high)
- Delta: 0.7758 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.4086 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0598 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $3,825
- Price Change Ratio: 278.26% (extreme)
- IV (11.36%) = Implied volatility, indicating market uncertainty
- Leverage Ratio (45.58%) = High returns for small price moves
- Delta (0.7758) = 77.58% chance of expiring in-the-money
- Gamma (0.0598) = High sensitivity to price swings
- Theta (-0.4086) = Rapid time decay, favoring short-term plays
- Turnover ($3,825) = Sufficient liquidity for entry/exit
- Payoff (5% up to $208.20): $208.20 - $195 = $13.20 profit per contract
- Why This Stands Out: High leverage ratio and gamma make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario, with moderate IV and liquidity.

• GTLS20250919C200
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $200
- Expiration: 2025-09-19
- IV: 6.65% (low)
- Leverage Ratio: 110.77% (extreme)
- Delta: 0.4694 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.09498 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0791 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $30,698
- Price Change Ratio: -14.76% (bearish)
- IV (6.65%) = Low volatility, indicating market stability
- Leverage Ratio (110.77%) = Explosive returns for small price moves
- Delta (0.4694) = 46.94% chance of expiring in-the-money
- Gamma (0.0791) = High sensitivity to price swings
- Theta (-0.09498) = Moderate time decay, favoring mid-term plays
- Turnover ($30,698) = Strong liquidity for entry/exit
- Payoff (5% up to $208.20): $208.20 - $200 = $8.20 profit per contract
- Why This Stands Out: The 110.77% leverage ratio offers extreme returns for a 5% upside, with high gamma and sufficient liquidity to manage risk.

Backtest Chart Industries Stock Performance
The 16% intraday surge in GTLS has historically led to mixed short-to-medium-term performance. While the 3-Day win rate is 49.17%, the 10-Day win rate is slightly higher at 51.20%, and the 30-Day win rate is 53.97%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such a surge. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 2.96% over 30 days, suggesting that while there is a good chance of positive returns, the magnitude of those returns may be limited.

GTLS: A High-Velocity Catalyst—What to Watch Before the $220.03 52-Week High
The GTLS rally is underpinned by a clear catalyst: Baker Hughes’ $13.6 billion all-cash acquisition. While the stock has surged 15.5% intraday, the 52-week high of $220.03 remains a critical technical threshold. A break above this level could signal broader institutional buying and validate the $210/share premium as a floor. Conversely, a failure to hold above $195 (the strike of the GTLS20250815C195 call) could trigger profit-taking and volatility. Investors should monitor Caterpillar (CAT), the sector leader, which is down 1.4%—a potential early indicator of broader industrial machinery sentiment. For now, aggressive bulls may consider the GTLS20250815C195 into a test of $220.03, while cautious buyers might wait for a pullback to $195 before initiating long positions.