Is Chart Industries a Buy Before the Baker Hughes Takeout?

The pending acquisition of Chart Industries (GTLS) by Baker Hughes has created a compelling case study in valuation discipline and portfolio management. With the $210-per-share all-cash offer approved by Chart's shareholders in October 2025 and regulatory hurdles cleared by November 6, 2025, the deal now hinges on customary closing conditions. As the stock trades in the $203–$204 range in November 2025, investors face a critical question: Is the narrow discount to the acquisition price sufficient to justify a pre-close purchase, or does the risk-reward profile favor patience?

Valuation Discipline: A Narrow Window

Chart's current stock price reflects a discount of approximately 3–4% to the $210 acquisition price. This gap, while modest, is not insignificant in the context of merger arbitrage. According to data from November 2025, the stock's 52-week range and recent volatility suggest a market that remains cautiously optimistic but not fully priced for certainty. Analysts have assigned a consensus "Buy" rating to GTLS, with an average price target of $204.89, which aligns closely with the current trading range.

From a valuation perspective, Chart's forward P/E ratio of 16.65 for 2025 appears reasonable, especially given its projected EBITDA of $1.014 billion-a 37.73% increase from 2024. However, the stock's trailing P/E of 54.6 and a PEG ratio of 1.15 indicate that growth expectations are already baked into the price. This suggests that the market is pricing Chart's future cash flows with a degree of optimism, which may or may not align with Baker Hughes' strategic rationale.

Portfolio Management: Balancing Risk and Reward

For portfolio managers, the key consideration is whether the 3–4% discount justifies the residual risk of the deal falling through. While U.S. antitrust concerns have been resolved, international regulatory scrutiny or unforeseen conditions could still delay the $13.6 billion transaction. However, Baker Hughes has secured committed bridge debt financing to fund the deal, and the acquisition is expected to close by mid-2026 according to financial data. This timeline provides investors with over a year to monitor developments, reducing the urgency to act immediately.

The acquisition's financial impact on Chart's operations also merits scrutiny. In Q3 2025, the company reported record orders of $1.68 billion but incurred an operating loss of $88.5 million due to deal-related costs. While these costs temporarily distort earnings, the fixed $210-per-share offer insulates shareholders from short-term volatility. For disciplined investors, this creates a scenario where the primary risk is negligible, and the reward is a small but potentially attractive arbitrage opportunity.

Strategic Rationale and Synergy Potential

Baker Hughes' acquisition of Chart Industries is not merely a financial play-it is a strategic move to accelerate its position in high-growth sectors like LNG, hydrogen, and carbon capture according to market analysis. Chart's 65 manufacturing locations and 2024 revenue of $4.2 billion provide Baker Hughes with a global footprint in molecule-handling technologies, a critical component of the energy transition. The projected $325 million in annualized cost synergies by year three further underscores the long-term value creation potential, even if it is not immediately reflected in Chart's stock price.

Conclusion: A Buy for the Patient Investor

While the discount to the acquisition price is modest, the low probability of deal failure and the strategic alignment between Baker Hughes and Chart Industries make GTLS an attractive addition to a diversified portfolio. Investors who prioritize valuation discipline may find the current price range-a few dollars below the $210 offer-sufficient to justify a pre-close purchase, particularly given the lack of equity risk in an all-cash transaction. However, those uncomfortable with even minor execution risks could adopt a wait-and-see approach, as the mid-2026 closing date allows ample time to reassess.

In the end, the decision hinges on one's risk tolerance and time horizon. For those who can stomach the small discount and trust in the robustness of the deal structure, Chart Industries presents a rare opportunity to participate in a well-capitalized, strategically driven acquisition with minimal downside.