Chart of the day 3-7-2025: OKTA

OKTA after the blockbuster earning , it break through the previous 2 year high. Now sits at 111.00 [open our superchart here]

The technical landscape for okta, Inc. (OKTA) has undergone significant transformation in recent trading sessions, creating a compelling setup for investors and traders. After experiencing a remarkable surge following its latest earnings report, the stock has established a new trading range that warrants detailed technical examination.

Current Price Action and Recent Performance

As of March 6, 2025, OKTA closed at $111.32, representing a 4.38% decline from the previous session's close of $116.31. This pullback comes after two consecutive sessions of exceptional performance, with the stock surging 24.27% on March 4 and adding another 7.39% on March 5[15]. The recent price action demonstrates heightened volatility following the company's Q4 earnings release, which exceeded analyst expectations and prompted widespread reevaluation of the stock's potential[5]. The intraday trading on March 6 showed OKTA opening at $114.36 and trading as high as $116.96 before retreating to its closing level. This price reversal suggests some profit-taking after the substantial two-day rally.

Moving Average Analysis

Okta's stock is currently trading well above all major moving averages, creating a technically bullish foundation. The stock price of $111.32 sits significantly above its 50-day SMA of $90.62 (23% higher) and its 200-day SMA of $86.08 (29.3% higher)[12]. This substantial premium indicates strong positive momentum. The 8-day EMA stands at $102.14, with the 20-day EMA at $97.42, both providing potential support levels should the stock experience further consolidation[12]. The golden cross formation (50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average) that has developed further confirms the bullish trend from a technical perspective.

Momentum Indicators

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) requires particular attention given the recent price surge. While earlier data showed an RSI reading of 45.38 (neutral territory)[1], the recent dramatic price appreciation has likely pushed this indicator into overbought territory. This suggests potential for a short-term consolidation or pullback as the stock digests recent gains.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a value of 0.15, generating a technical buy signal[1]. This positive MACD reading reinforces the bullish momentum, though the magnitude of recent price moves may have stretched this indicator as well.

Oscillators and Volume

Stochastic indicators have been signaling buying opportunities, with the Stochastic (9,6) at 19.98%[17] and the StochRSI at 17.95%[17], both generating technical buy signals before the recent surge. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) reading of -117.37 had also indicated a buy signal[1], suggesting the stock was technically oversold before its explosive move higher.

Volume analysis reveals extraordinary trading activity coinciding with the price surge. On March 4, volume spiked to 17.33 million shares, followed by 10.43 million shares on March 5[15], both substantially exceeding the average daily volume of approximately 3.2 million shares. This high-volume breakout validates the significance of the move and suggests strong conviction among buyers.

Support and Resistance Levels

Multiple technical sources identify key levels to monitor in the current trading environment. Immediate support can be found at $105.87[16], with stronger support likely forming around the $100 psychological level, which previously served as resistance before the breakout. The recent high of $116.96 established on March 6 represents the immediate resistance level.

The range between $111.35 and $115.35 constitutes a critical resistance zone based on historical price points from February and March 2024[5]. A sustained move above this zone would signal continuation of the bullish trend, potentially targeting the $120-$140 range identified in recent analyst reports[5][7].

Volatility and Price Projections

The recent earnings-driven volatility has established a wider trading range for OKTA. Based on standard deviation calculations, there is a 67% statistical probability that OKTA will trade between $105.87 (support) and $110.75 (resistance) in the near term[16]. However, the extraordinary nature of the recent move suggests these statistical projections may underestimate potential price swings.

Options market data provides additional insight, with the 30-day implied volatility reflecting market expectations of continued significant price movement. A notable calendar call spread strategy with April expiration targeting $120 has been observed in the options market, suggesting sophisticated investors anticipate further upside potential of approximately 20% from pre-surge levels[13].

Trend Analysis and Market Position

The directional movement index (ADX) reading of 23.91 indicates a neutral trend strength[1], though this reading likely predates the recent surge. The powerful breakout above the $100 level, which had served as psychological resistance, has established a new trading range and likely recalibrated many technical indicators.

OKTA's trend can be classified as strongly bullish based on its position above all major moving averages[12]. The stock has outperformed the broader market substantially in recent periods, returning +35.1% over the past three months while the S&P 500 declined 3.7% during the same timeframe[16].

Technical Outlook and Conclusion

The technical analysis of OKTA reveals a stock in a powerful uptrend following an earnings-driven breakout. The substantial gap above all major moving averages, positive momentum indicators, and high-volume confirmation all support a bullish technical stance. However, the magnitude and velocity of the recent advance suggest the stock may be temporarily overbought, creating potential for near-term consolidation or a pullback toward the $100-$105 support zone.

Traders should monitor whether OKTA can sustain trading above the crucial $111.35-$115.35 resistance zone, which would confirm continuation of the bullish trend. Alternatively, a reversal below $105 might suggest a deeper retracement toward the 8-day EMA around $102.

The longer-term technical outlook remains positive as long as OKTA maintains its position above the rising 50-day moving average. With analysts raising price targets following the strong earnings report, the technical setup aligns with fundamental improvements, potentially supporting further upside toward the $120-$140 range over the coming weeks and months.

Citations:

[1] https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/okta/technical-analysis

[2] https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/OKTA/profile

[3] https://munafasutra.com/nasdaq/ma/OKTA

[4] https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OKTA/momentum/performance

[5] https://www.vtmarkets.com/live-updates/after-earnings-oktas-stock-surged-over-25-surpassing-expectations-and-indicating-strong-momentum-ahead/

[6] https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/OKTA/forecast/

[7] https://www.entrepreneur.com/finance/oktas-stock-reversal-gains-momentum-20-upside-ahead/487997

[8] https://www.timothysykes.com/news/okta-inc-okta-news-2025_03_04/

[9] https://stockstotrade.com/news/okta-inc-okta-news-2025_03_04-3/

[10] https://swingtradebot.com/equities/OKTA

[11] https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/OKTA/cheat-sheet

[12] https://financhill.com/stock-price-chart/okta-technical-analysis

[13] https://marketchameleon.com/articles/i/2025/3/5/23203-okta-bullish-calendar-call-spread-with-197pct-upside

[14] https://www.timothysykes.com/news/okta-inc-okta-news-2025_03_04-2/

[15] https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/OKTA/chart/

[16] https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/OKTA/Summary/

[17] https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/OKTA/technical-analysis

[18] https://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=OKTA

[19] https://aiolux.com/reports/analytics-technical-indicators?symbol=OKTA&tab_name=rsi

[20] https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/OKTA/technical-analysis

[21] https://www.investing.com/equities/okta-inc-chart

[22] https://www.okta.com/phishing-resistance/

[23] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/okta-okta-just-flashed-golden-143503403.html

[24] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/okta-delivers-what-some-of-its-bigger-peers-couldnt-a-rosy-outlook-c54b6901

[25] https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-OKTA/technicals/

[26] https://help.okta.com/oie/en-us/content/topics/architecture/pr/pr-overview.htm

[27] https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2425899/okta-okta-just-overtook-the-50-day-moving-average

[28] https://www.gurufocus.com/term/rsi-14/NAS:OKTA

[29] https://www.investing.com/equities/okta-inc-technical

[30] https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2427192/here-is-what-to-know-beyond-why-okta-inc-okta-is-a-trending-stock

[31] https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/research-analysts-issue-forecasts-for-okta-q1-earnings-2025-03-06/

[32] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OKTA/

[33] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-estimates-rising-okta-okta-172004940.html

[34] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/okta-solid-beat-even-better-220920010.html

[35] https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/research-analysts-offer-predictions-for-okta-fy2026-earnings-2025-03-06/

[36] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/okta-inc-okta-hit-52-141502285.html

[37] https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/closer-look-oktas-options-market-dynamics

[38] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OKTA/history/

[39] https://optioncharts.io/options/OKTA/option-profit-loss-chart/strategy/short-call

[40] https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/03/05/okta-stock-whats-next-after-q4-triumph/

[41] https://investor.okta.com/news-and-events/news-releases/news-details/2025/Okta-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-And-Fiscal-Year-2025-Financial-Results/default.aspx

[42] https://seekingalpha.com/news/4416258-okta-surges-as-q4-fiscal-2025-results-outlook-topple-expectations

[43] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/okta/

[44] https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-okta-q4-2025-beats-expectations-stock-surges-93CH-3904386

[45] https://marketchameleon.com/articles/i/2025/3/4/23127-okta-bullish-calendar-call-spread-with-140pct-upside