Is ChargePoint a Bargain Below $2? A Fundamental Valuation Deep Dive

The electric vehicle (EV) revolution is undeniable, but investors in ChargePoint (CHPT) have endured a turbulent journey. As of June 19, 2025, ChargePoint's stock price hovered at $0.6870, a far cry from its 2021 IPO peak of $40. With shares trading below $2 for months, the question looms: Is this a rare opportunity to buy into EV infrastructure, or a trap for the unwary? Let's dissect ChargePoint's fundamentals, valuation metrics, and strategic moves to find an answer.

The Current State of ChargePoint's Valuation

ChargePoint's valuation has cratered alongside its stock price. As of Q2 2025, its market cap is just $316 million (calculated using 459 million shares outstanding and the $0.6870 stock price). This stands in stark contrast to its $4.5 billion valuation at its IPO. The decline reflects a mix of execution challenges and macroeconomic headwinds, but there are glimmers of hope.

Key Financial Metrics (Q2 2025):

• Revenue: $108.5 million (-28% YoY). Supply chain disruptions in legacy hardware sales (Networked Charging Systems) dragged down top-line growth, but subscription revenue rose 21% YoY to $36.2 million. This recurring revenue stream is critical for future stability.
• Gross Margin: Improved to 24% (GAAP), up from 1% a year earlier, thanks to reduced inventory write-downs.
• Cost Cuts: A 15% workforce reduction is projected to save $38 million annually (non-GAAP), with restructuring costs of $10 million. This should accelerate the path to profitability.
• Liquidity: $243.7 million in cash and an undrawn $150 million credit facility provide a safety net.

Valuation Metrics: EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales

To assess whether ChargePoint is undervalued, we must compare its valuation multiples to peers and its own trajectory.

EV/EBITDA: A Rocky Road Ahead

ChargePoint's non-GAAP EBITDA loss narrowed to $34.1 million in Q2 2025 (down from $81.2 million a year earlier). The company aims to achieve positive EBITDA by fiscal 2026, but until then, the EV/EBITDA metric is negative. This makes it hard to benchmark against profitable peers like EVgo (EVGO) or Blink Charging (BLNK), but we can look at EV/Sales as a proxy.

• EV/Sales (Q2 2025): ChargePoint's enterprise value (EV) is estimated at $530 million ($316M market cap + $286M debt - $244M cash). Its EV/Sales ratio is $530M / $108.5M = 4.9x, which is significantly lower than its 2021 average of ~15x.
• Peer Comparison: EVgo trades at ~6x EV/Sales, while Blink trades at ~4x. ChargePoint's multiple is now in line with or below these peers, despite its leadership in installed charging stations.

The "EV/Goose" Metric: Charging Stations as Assets

In the EV charging sector, the EV per charging station (EV/Goose) metric is critical. ChargePoint's installed base of over 200,000 stations globally (as of 2024) positions it as a leader. If its EV/Goose ratio is favorable, it could justify a higher valuation.

• ChargePoint's EV/Goose: Assuming 200,000 stations, its EV of $530 million implies $2,650 per station.
• Competitors: EVgo's EV per station is ~$4,000, while Blink's is ~$2,000. ChargePoint's ratio is in the middle of this range, suggesting it's neither overvalued nor undervalued here—but its scale gives it a defensible market position.

Catalysts and Risks

Catalysts for Turnaround:

1. Cost Discipline: The workforce reduction and operational simplification could cut burn rates significantly.
2. Subscription Growth: Subscription revenue (now 33% of total) is highly predictable. If this trend continues, it could stabilize margins.
3. Strategic Partnerships: The LG partnership and the launch of Omni Port (a universal charging solution) address compatibility issues, which could boost adoption.
4. Debt Management: No near-term debt maturities reduce liquidity risks.

Risks to Avoid:

1. Supply Chain Volatility: Hardware sales remain hamstrung by parts shortages.
2. EV Adoption Uncertainty: Slow EV adoption in key markets could delay revenue growth.
3. Competitor Pressure: Rivals like Tesla (TSLA) and Shell's NewMotion are expanding rapidly.

Investment Thesis: Buy the Dip, but Stay Vigilant

ChargePoint's valuation is deeply discounted, and its cost-cutting and strategic moves suggest a path to profitability. However, the path is not without potholes. Here's the breakdown:

• Buy: If you believe in EV adoption's inevitability and ChargePoint's ability to execute on its restructuring, the $0.69 price offers asymmetric risk-reward. The stock is down 98% from its peak, and the cash reserves provide a buffer.
• Hold: For investors who prefer to wait for clearer signs of revenue stabilization or EBITDA positivity, ChargePoint is a “watch” candidate.
• Avoid: If you think supply chains will remain broken or EVs face a prolonged slowdown, this is still too risky.

Final Analysis

ChargePoint is trading at a fraction of its former self, but its valuation metrics suggest it's pricing in significant pessimism. The subscription business and strategic moves are positives, but execution remains key. For a speculative growth investor, this is a compelling “bottom-fishing” opportunity. For others, it's a high-risk bet on the EV future. Monitor the Q3 2025 results (revenue guidance: $85M–$95M) and EV/EBITDA trends closely. If the company meets its cost-cutting targets, this could be the start of a comeback story.

Rating: Buy (with a tight stop-loss)
Price Target: $1.50 (3x upside) if EBITDA turns positive in 2026.