Chainlink/Yen Market Overview for 2025-09-23

• • •

• Price surged to 3261.0 JPY on 15-minute chart, breaking above key resistance levels near 3247.0 JPY.
• Volume spiked to 829.2 in final candle, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI reached overbought territory, signaling potential short-term consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, indicating increased volatility in final hours.
• Candlestick patterns suggest bearish reversal risk near 3233.0 JPY.

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 3160.0 JPY on 2025-09-22 at 16:00 ET and closed at 3239.0 JPY on 2025-09-23 at 16:00 ET, hitting a high of 3261.0 JPY and a low of 3133.0 JPY over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 11,722.33 units, while total turnover reached 36,582,893.78 JPY.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bullish reversal pattern in the final 15-minute candle, with a long upper wick from 3261.0 to 3238.0 JPY, signaling profit-taking. Earlier in the session, a bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 3233.0 JPY, raising caution. A doji at 3225.0 JPY on 09:15 ET reflected indecision. Key support levels identified include 3218.0 and 3200.0 JPY, while resistance levels are at 3233.0, 3247.0, and 3261.0 JPY.

Moving Averages

The 20-period 15-minute moving average (SMA) crossed above the 50-period SMA in the early morning, confirming a short-term bullish trend. The 50-period daily SMA currently sits below the 100-period SMA, suggesting bearish bias in the longer term. Price has traded above all three major moving averages in the past four hours, indicating strong short-term bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines crossed to the positive territory in the final four hours of the session, confirming bullish momentum. RSI reached 72 in the last 30 minutes, entering overbought territory, which may indicate a short-term pullback. However, volume confirmed the move, suggesting strength rather than weakness. A bearish RSI divergence emerged at 3233.0 JPY, raising caution for potential consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the final 90 minutes of the session, with price reaching the upper band at 3261.0 JPY. This expansion typically signals increased volatility and is often followed by a reversion to the mean. Price remains within the upper third of the bands, suggesting continued bullish pressure unless a strong reversal pattern emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the last candle with 829.2 units traded, reflecting strong buying interest. Turnover hit 26,985,123 JPY during this period. Notably, volume remained above average for much of the session, especially between 03:00 and 09:00 ET, confirming the upward trend. A divergence between volume and price movement at 3233.0 JPY suggests caution for further bullish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing (3133.0 to 3261.0 JPY), price has found resistance at the 61.8% level (~3236.0 JPY). A break above this could target the 78.6% retracement (~3273.0 JPY), while a pullback may find support at the 50% level (~3197.0 JPY). Daily Fibonacci levels show strong resistance at 3261.0 JPY and support at 3168.0 JPY.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on using a combination of RSI overbought/oversold levels and Bollinger Band reversion for entry triggers. A buy signal would be generated when price touches the lower Bollinger Band and RSI falls below 30, with a sell signal on reversion to the mean. Over the past 24 hours, these conditions were met twice—once at 3184.0 JPY and again at 3203.0 JPY—resulting in strong rebounds. Given the current overbought RSI and price near the upper Bollinger Band, this strategy would now suggest caution and potential for consolidation or a pullback.