Chainlink/Yen Market Overview for 2025-09-21

• Price declined sharply from 3481 to 3430, forming bearish divergence.
• RSI dipped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions with potential for a rebound.
• Bollinger Bands tightened prior to the breakdown, signaling high volatility.
• Volume remained stable despite price drop, indicating no panic selling.
• 50-period MA acted as a resistance, capping upward momentum.

24-Hour Summary

The Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) pair opened at 3475 on 2025-09-20 at 16:00 ET and closed at 3430 by 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour high was 3481, low 3430. Total volume across the 96 15-minute candles was 9,210.32, and total notional turnover was approximately ¥31,958,756. The price action showed a bearish trend, with multiple bearish signals and a lack of strong buying pressure.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, the LINKJPY price has formed several bearish patterns, including a bearish engulfing pattern as prices fell from 3481 to 3465, and a doji near 3460 indicating indecision. Key support levels were observed at 3460 and 3450, with the latter acting as a critical short-term floor. Resistance levels appeared at 3475 and 3480, both of which failed to hold during the downward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were trending lower, confirming the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period MAs were aligned with the price trend, with the 200-period MA acting as a potential long-term resistance. The price closed below both the 50- and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative and crossed below the signal line, confirming a bearish crossover. The histogram expanded in the negative territory, indicating strong momentum to the downside. RSI dipped below the 30 threshold, suggesting the asset is in oversold territory, though this could also signal exhaustion of the downward move. A potential rebound or consolidation may be imminent.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly between 3460 and 3475 before the price broke down. The tight squeeze was followed by a sharp decline, confirming the breakout was genuine. The current price of 3430 sits well below the lower band, indicating high volatility and a potential reversal setup, though caution is warranted as the trend remains bearish.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained relatively stable throughout the 24-hour period, with no major spikes to signal panic selling or aggressive buying. The average volume was approximately 96.14, and the notional turnover was fairly consistent, with no divergence between price and volume. This suggests that the decline was more of a measured move than a panic-driven sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 3481 to 3430 move, the 38.2% level is at 3466 and the 61.8% level is at 3452. The price found temporary support at 3450, slightly above the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting that this area may be a key battleground for the next few hours. A break below 3430 could target the next support at 3420–3410.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the price breaks below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing candle. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance (initially at 3475), and a take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (3452). Given the recent bearish momentum and confirmed break below key MAs, this strategy aligns with the current technical environment. However, a failure to hold 3450 could invalidate the setup.

Forward Outlook and Risk Caveat

While the near-term bias remains bearish, a bounce from the 3450–3460 support area cannot be ruled out. Investors should monitor the 50-period MA for potential retesting and be cautious of any divergence in momentum indicators. A break above 3475 could signal a shift in sentiment, while a sustained move below 3420 would indicate further downside risk.