Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) Market Overview: Volatility and Turning Momentum

• Price closed lower at 3,539.0, down from 3,625.0 with intraday high of 3,684.0 and low of 3,462.0.
• Volatility expanded as price moved through key resistance and support levels.
• Volume surged during late-night rallies but faded during the Asian session.
• RSI entered oversold territory at close, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly, signaling heightened market uncertainty.

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 3,625.0 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, hit an intraday high of 3,684.0 and a low of 3,462.0, and closed at 3,539.0 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 56,851.07 contracts, with a notional turnover of ¥203,589,431.23. The pair exhibited choppy price action, with sharp reversals and key support/resistance levels tested.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern displayed mixed signals. A strong bearish engulfing candle formed in the early morning, followed by a large bullish reversal in the late evening. The 3,550–3,600 range acted as a key support cluster, while resistance was seen at 3,660–3,680. A doji formed near the intraday high at 3,684.0, signaling indecision. The intraday swing from 3,684.0 to 3,462.0 marked a 6.07% decline, with Fibonacci retracement levels of 3,610 (38.2%) and 3,558 (61.8%) tested during the recovery.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover in the early morning before a sharp reversal brought the 20-period MA above the 50-period. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA remains above the 200-day MA, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias, though the 100-day MA now appears to be pressing downward and could act as a potential short-term resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence in the morning, with a strong negative crossover confirming the sell-off. However, it reversed in the evening, showing positive momentum as buying interest returned. The RSI entered oversold territory at 29.5 as of the final close, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound. A break above 50 on the RSI could signal renewed bullish momentum, but a failure to hold above 40 could extend the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the early morning sell-off, with the Bollinger Bands widening to over 50 points. The price spent much of the 24-hour period near the lower band before rebounding toward the middle band. This expansion suggests a period of uncertainty and possible consolidation in the near term. If the price remains within the bands, it may indicate continuation of the current trend, but a break outside could signal a shift in sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning decline and again during the late-evening rally, indicating participation from both sellers and buyers. Notional turnover mirrored volume closely, with a peak during the 22:00–00:30 ET timeframe. Divergence between price and volume was minimal, suggesting that the price action was largely supported by real trading activity. A continuation of elevated volume could confirm either a breakout or breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels played a key role during the intraday correction. The 38.2% retracement level at 3,610 and 61.8% at 3,558 were both tested. The price closed near 3,539.0, below the 61.8% level, indicating a potential extension to 3,450–3,400. Traders should watch for a possible bounce from this level or a continuation of the downward trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 3,558, with a stop-loss below the 3,530 level and a take-profit at the 38.2% level (3,610). This setup would aim to capture a short-term rebound based on mean reversion principles. If confirmed, it could serve as a low-risk entry for traders expecting a temporary bounce before resuming the broader downtrend.