Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) Market Overview for 2025-09-14

• Price declines from 3,691.0 to 3,552.0 JPY over 24 hours, with bearish momentum in final hours.
• RSI and MACD show weakening bullish momentum, with overbought levels seen early in the session.
• Volatility expands mid-session, followed by contraction toward the close; key support appears at 3,576.0–3,582.0.
• Volume spikes during early bearish moves, but later diverges from price as selling pressure wanes.
• A deep pullback may be approaching if short-term support levels break.

Price Summary and Context

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 3,674.0 JPY on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3,552.0 JPY on 2025-09-14 at the same time. The 24-hour period saw a high of 3,691.0 JPY and a low of 3,526.0 JPY. The total traded volume was 11,939.67 contracts, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥43,520,839.0 JPY (calculated from volume × average price).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a distinct bearish bias, with a series of lower highs and lower lows developing from midday onwards. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 09:00–09:15 ET as the asset closed at 3,634.0 after an open of 3,636.0. Later, in the afternoon, a potential support cluster formed around the 3,576.0–3,582.0 range, which may act as a short-term floor. A bearish reversal is also indicated at the 3,604.0 JPY level during the 12:00–12:15 ET candle.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the price has spent most of the session below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 20-period MA is currently near 3,610.0 JPY, and the 50-period MA is slightly below that, suggesting a possible bearish crossover is forming. The MACD line, which peaked in the early morning session at 14.0, has since turned negative and is approaching a bearish cross below the signal line. This indicates a slowdown in bullish momentum and an increase in bearish bias.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed an overbought condition in the early hours of the session, peaking at 62.0, before trending downward into oversold territory by the end of the 24-hour window. This reinforces the bearish trend. Bollinger Bands have also widened mid-session, indicating increased volatility. Price has spent the latter half of the session consolidating near the lower band, which may suggest the 3,576.0 JPY level is a key psychological support.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged early in the session during the bearish break from 3,680.0 to 3,612.0 JPY, with a notable 506.86 volume spike at 17:15 ET. Later, volume began to decline despite continued price depreciation, hinting at weakening bearish conviction. Turnover aligned with volume surges, but as volume tailed off, the divergence suggests possible exhaustion among short-term sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 24-hour swing high of 3,691.0 JPY and low of 3,526.0 JPY, the 38.2% level is at 3,615.0 JPY and the 61.8% level is at 3,567.0 JPY. The asset closed near the 61.8% retracement level, which may now act as a key support. A break below 3,567.0 JPY could bring the next target down to 3,543.0 JPY.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in RSI and the weakening volume, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at a confirmed break of the 3,567.0 JPY Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss placed above the nearest resistance at 3,584.0 JPY. A target could be set at 3,530.0 JPY, which aligns with recent intraday lows and is supported by the Bollinger Band’s lower boundary. This approach would aim to capitalize on the continued bearish momentum while managing risk through defined stops and targets.