Chainlink/Tether Market Overview

• Price dropped sharply from $21.61 to $13.03 before recovering to close at $18.05
• Strong bearish momentum seen in early hours with a massive 15.15–17.06 rebound
• Volatility surged during the 21:00–23:30 ET window with multiple high-volume swings
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought/oversold extremes, with price action diverging from momentum
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the breakdown phase, indicating high volatility

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $21.45 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $21.61, a low of $7.90, and closed at $18.05 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume was approximately 58.67 million LINK, with a notional turnover of $111.53 million, signaling intense trading activity and a sharp bearish selloff.

Structure & Formations

The session was marked by a bearish breakdown from $21.61 to $13.03, followed by a strong rebound to close near $18.05. A long bearish candle formed between $21.61 and $13.03, indicating capitulation, followed by a large bullish candle from $13.03 to $17.50, showing aggressive buying. A potential support level emerged around $16.29–$17.02, where price found a bottom after the selloff. A key resistance appears around $18.02–$18.35, where upward momentum stalled twice. A morning doji formed around $17.10–$17.50, suggesting indecision and potential for a breakout or reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly during the selloff phase before turning bullish after $16.29. The 50-period MA remains above the 20-period MA, indicating short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period MA, while the 200-period MA remains in a bearish position, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias with short-term upside potential.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed bearishly during the early selloff and turned bullish after $16.29, confirming the short-term rebound. RSI dropped sharply into oversold territory below 30 during the breakdown phase and then surged into overbought territory above 70 during the rebound, indicating aggressive buying pressure. Divergences were observed between the price and RSI during the morning doji, suggesting possible consolidation ahead of the next directional move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff phase, reflecting high volatility and sharp price dislocation. Price closed near the middle band on the 15-minute chart, indicating potential for continued consolidation or a breakout. The lower band acted as a strong support during the $13.03–$16.29 rebound, while the upper band currently serves as a key resistance at $18.05–$18.35.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the breakdown and rebound phases, with the largest single candle (21:00–21:15 ET) printing 1.61 million in volume and a massive range from $20.63 to $13.03. Notional turnover also surged during this time, confirming the bearish breakdown. A divergence between price and turnover occurred during the rebound from $13.03–$17.02, suggesting that the buying pressure may be waning.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the major swing from $21.61 to $13.03, key retracement levels include $16.52 (38.2%) and $18.15 (61.8%). Price closed near the 61.8% level, suggesting that the rebound may be gaining momentum. On the 15-minute chart, retracement levels at $16.52 and $18.15 may serve as critical turning points for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($18.15) with a stop-loss placed below $16.29 and a take-profit at $19.20. This setup is supported by the MACD turning bullish and RSI moving into overbought territory during the morning rebound. A short position may also be triggered if price breaks below $16.29 with a stop above $17.06 and a target of $14.30. The strategy would aim to capture both the rebound and potential follow-through moves while limiting downside exposure.