Chainlink/Tether Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-03)

• Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) fell from a 24-hour high of $23.12 to close near $22.72 at 12:00 ET, with bearish momentum emerging.
• A sharp decline in the early hours followed a failed breakout above $23.00, suggesting bearish exhaustion.
• Volatility and turnover spiked during the morning hours, indicating active bearish participation.
• Key support levels around $22.50 and $22.30 were tested, with no strong rejection observed.
• RSI entered oversold territory by the end of the session, hinting at potential near-term bounce potential.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $22.24 on October 2, reached a high of $23.12, and closed at $22.72 as of 12:00 ET on October 3. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 1,906,244.03, with a notional turnover of approximately $41.9 million. The price action revealed a strong bearish bias after a brief bullish attempt early in the session.

1. Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart displayed a bearish structure, with price forming a large bearish reversal pattern near $23.12 following a failed breakout. A series of lower highs and lower lows confirmed a breakdown below key support at $22.70 and $22.50. A morning rejection candle at $22.50 and a late-night hammer near $22.20 suggest short-term uncertainty. Key support levels are now at $22.40 and $22.20, while resistance rests at $22.75 and $22.90.

2. Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a death cross, confirming the bearish momentum. On a daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is approaching the 200-period MA from below, which is often a bearish signal for larger timeframes. The price remains below all key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias.

3. MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the early morning, with the histogram shrinking as bearish momentum weakened. The RSI dropped into oversold territory by the end of the session, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, without a clear reversal candle or strong rejection at key levels, a full recovery is unlikely. Divergences between price and RSI are not significant, suggesting continued bearish pressure for now.

4. Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the morning session as price moved rapidly from $22.20 to $23.12. Price has since settled near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating bearish exhaustion. A retest of the upper band is unlikely unless bullish volume surges. The contraction phase is now complete, and price appears to be consolidating within a tighter range, suggesting a potential breakout attempt.

5. Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning hours, particularly between 16:00 and 19:00 ET on October 2, as bearish traders pushed price down from $23.12 to $22.70. Turnover also spiked in these hours, confirming the strength of the downward move. In the evening, volume normalized but remained above average. No clear price/volume divergences were observed, suggesting that bearish activity was genuine and not driven by manipulation or wash trading.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 23.12–22.20 swing, the 38.2% retracement level is at $22.72, which aligns with the current price level. A retest of this level may trigger a short-term bounce, but a break below the 23.6% level at $22.55 would confirm a deeper pullback. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the longer-term bearish move is near $22.20, which could be a key support to watch.

7. Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a rejection candle below a key Fibonacci retracement level. A stop loss could be placed above the nearest resistance level, with a target aligned with the next Fibonacci support or a fixed risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2. This strategy would focus on capturing early bearish moves during high-volume periods, particularly when RSI is approaching overbought territory and MACD is forming bearish divergences.