Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined from $24.44 to $23.42 with a bearish momentum reversal.
• Key support and resistance levels emerged amid volatile swings.
• High-volume breakdowns confirmed bearish bias and oversold RSI.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion as price dropped below the 20SMA.
• Total volume reached 2.7M, with turnover exceeding $67.4M.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $24.08 (12:00 ET – 1), reached a high of $24.44, and closed at $23.42 (12:00 ET) with a low of $23.35. Total 24-hour volume was 2.7 million contracts, and notional turnover reached $67.4 million. The pair experienced pronounced bearish momentum, volatility expansion, and a breakdown in key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish breakdown pattern after encountering resistance at $24.44. The $24.11–$24.25 range became a pivotal support-turned-resistance, where the price struggled to regain control. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible near $24.26, confirming the shift in sentiment. A long lower shadow at $23.87–$23.61 hinted at a potential bounce, but was quickly negated by a large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bearish, with the 20SMA below the 50SMA. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMAs showed a strong downtrend, reinforcing the bearish bias. The price closed below the 20SMA at $23.42, signaling ongoing bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line with bearish divergence, confirming a shift in momentum. RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory, but failed to rebound, suggesting continued bearish pressure. A strong divergence in RSI and price during the $23.87–$23.61 consolidation period indicates a lack of buying interest at lower levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with the price closing below the lower band at $23.42. This expansion is often seen during trend continuation phases, especially in a bearish context. The narrowing of the bands earlier in the day (around $24.22) acted as a prelude to the breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown phase, especially around the $24.26–$23.61 range, confirming the bearish sentiment. Notional turnover spiked during the large sell-off between $24.26 and $23.42. Price and turnover aligned, suggesting strong conviction in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels highlighted key psychological zones: the 61.8% retracement at $23.90 and the 38.2% at $24.25 were both tested and failed. A critical support level at $23.35 was last seen as the 100-period low, which could be a potential target for further correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could focus on the breakdown of key resistance levels and oversold RSI divergence. Traders might look to sell on confirmatory bearish patterns—such as bearish engulfing or breakdowns—near strong resistance zones like $24.26 and $24.44. A stop-loss above these levels could manage risk, with a target at $23.35–$23.45. Given the current volatility and bearish momentum, this setup could be used to capture the continuation of the downtrend while managing downside risk.