ChainLink Market Overview for 2025-09-03

• ChainLink (LINKUSD) closed higher at 23.51, driven by a sharp rally in the 24-hour period.
• A consolidation phase followed a key breakout above 23.30, with renewed buying interest seen after 20:30 ET.
• Volume and turnover spiked in the evening and early night session, suggesting strong conviction in the upward move.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, signaling elevated volatility and momentum.
• RSI and MACD suggest positive momentum, though overbought conditions are emerging near the 23.51 level.

ChainLink (LINKUSD) opened at 22.93 on 2025-09-02 at 12:00 ET, surged to 23.82, and closed at 23.51 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-03. The 24-hour high was 23.82, and the low was 22.93. Total volume was 114.92, and notional turnover was approximately 2,686.07 (assuming USD prices).

Structure & Formations

Over the 24-hour period, ChainLink displayed a strong bullish bias, particularly after 20:30 ET, when the price broke above the 23.30 resistance. A key breakout candle (20:30–20:45 ET) closed at 23.30, followed by a strong bullish continuation into the 23.50 range. The formation resembled a three white soldiers pattern, with confirmation coming from volume spikes and a closing above 23.51.

Support levels were established at 22.93 and 23.04, where the price stalled or reversed on multiple occasions. A bearish rejection was observed at 23.04, while a bullish rejection occurred at 23.30. The price also tested the 23.45–23.51 resistance cluster multiple times, failing to break through until late in the session.

Bullish Confirmation

After the 23.30 breakout, the price closed at 23.51, indicating a potential continuation of the upward move. The 23.45–23.51 range may now act as a consolidation or short-term resistance, with a possible retest expected in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bullish crossover just before the breakout at 20:30 ET. The 20 MA crossed above the 50 MA, confirming a short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA stood at approximately 23.20, while the 100-period MA was at around 23.15 and the 200-period MA near 23.00. The price closed above both the 50 and 100-period MAs, indicating continued strength in the short-to-medium term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the early evening, with both lines trending upward, indicating bullish momentum. The histogram showed a broadening positive divergence, suggesting growing buying pressure. The RSI reached 62 at the close, indicating moderate overbought conditions. While not extreme, the RSI suggests that a correction may be imminent if the price fails to break above 23.51–23.55 in the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, with the upper band at approximately 23.58 and the lower band at 22.98. The price spent much of the session in the upper half of the band, particularly after the breakout. This indicates elevated volatility and strong bullish momentum. If the price remains above the mid-band (23.28), the bullish trend could continue, but a move below the 23.20 level could signal a pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the 20:30–23:45 ET window, with the largest single-volume spike occurring at 22:30 ET (volume = 13.6). This coincided with a price breakout and upward continuation, suggesting strong conviction. The notional turnover also surged during this window, aligning with the price action. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, indicating consistent conviction in the bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were applied to the key swing from 22.93 to 23.82. The 23.45–23.51 range corresponds to the 78.6% and 88.6% retracement levels, suggesting that buyers are active in this area. If the price breaks above 23.82, the next Fibonacci target would be around 23.95–24.00. A retest of the 23.30–23.45 levels could offer potential entry points for shorts or sideways traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20-period EMA as a signal line, with entries triggered when the price closes above it, confirmed by volume expansion and a RSI above 50. Stops could be placed below key support levels (22.93–23.04), with targets aligned to the 78.6% and 88.6% Fibonacci levels. This system would aim to capture momentum-based moves in a strong trending environment, with risk controlled through defined stop-loss levels and trailing exits. The recent 24-hour performance suggests this strategy may perform well when applied to similar setups.