Chainlink (LINK): Can the $11.90 Support Level Catalyze a 15% Rally Amid Bearish Momentum?

Chainlink (LINK) has long been a focal point for crypto investors, but its recent price action around the $11.90 support level has intensified scrutiny. As of December 2025, the token is trading near this critical psychological and technical barrier, with traders and analysts debating whether it can serve as a catalyst for a 15% rebound toward $14. This article dissects the technical and on-chain dynamics shaping LINK's near-term trajectory, offering a nuanced view of the risks and opportunities.

Technical Analysis: A Tenuous Balance

The $11.90 support level has historically acted as a reversal point for Chainlink, with traders betting on its ability to hold amid bearish momentum according to analysis. Currently, the price is hovering near this level, though it remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $14.19- a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 48.24, indicating neutral territory, while the MACD histogram shows a slight bullish buildup (0.2122), suggesting potential for upward movement.

However, the path to a 15% rally is not without hurdles. Overhead resistance at $14–$14.20 has repeatedly capped short-term gains, and a decisive break above this range is necessary to confirm renewed bullish momentum. If the price fails to reclaim $14.20, the bearish structure could persist, with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $13.24 acting as a secondary support zone.

On-Chain Insights: Conviction vs. Risk

On-chain data reveals a mixed picture. Long-leveraged positions near $11.88 and $12.72 total $7.81 million, dwarfing short positions of $2.08 million. This imbalance suggests strong conviction among traders that the $11.90 level will hold. However, overleveraged positions at $11.85 and $12.45 highlight liquidation risk zones, which could trigger short-term volatility if the price dips below these thresholds.