Chainlink's 13.2% Gain Follows Bitcoin Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Chainlink (LINK), a prominent player among the top 20 crypto assets, has recently shown signs of potential market fatigue. Over the past week, LINK experienced a 13.2% price gain, recovering from a significant drop that occurred ten days prior. This decline saw LINK plummet from $13.38 on June 19 to $10.94 on June 22, following Bitcoin's (BTC) drop to $99k amidst escalating tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent U.S. military actions.

Despite the market sentiment appearing to recover, Chainlink holders did not exhibit long-term conviction. On-chain metrics revealed a surge in token movement following the recent price bounce, which could be a concerning sign for bulls in the short term. Historically, Chainlink has maintained high development activity among DeFi tokens. However, since mid-April, this activity has been trending downward, raising some investor concerns. Although LINK’s development activity remains relatively high compared to other altcoins, the persistent sell-off signals accompanying its price movements to the $12 demand zone are worrisome.

The dormant circulation of Chainlink saw significant spikes on March 14 and June 20, indicating a flurry of on-chain token movement and a potential intent to sell. The recent price drop was accompanied by a wave of selling, underscoring a lack of faith from holders. Additionally, the mean coin age metric showed no considerable network-wide accumulation, with holders willing to take profits on price bounces toward the $16 level and panicking as the price approached local lows. This behavior suggests a weak HODLer mentality.

The exchange net position change, which tracks the change in LINK supply held in exchange wallets, has been positive in late 2024 and early 2025, indicating profit-taking pressure. The Chainlink mini-rally to $15.5 in late March was met with increased selling, and on June 20, the exchange net position change turned positive again, signaling another wave of selling. At the time of writing, the net position change remained positive, which is a concerning sign for LINK bulls.

Currently, Chainlink is trading at the $13.4 local resistance, with the $14 region serving as another supply zone nearby. Given the key resistances overhead and the increased selling pressure from holders over the past ten days, it appears likely that LINK might have formed another local top and could trend downward in the coming days. Traders and investors should keep an eye on broader macro trends, as they heavily influence altcoins like Chainlink.