Chainbase/Turkish Lira Market Overview: Volatility and Divergence in 24-Hour Session

Summary
• CTRY opened at $4.398, surged to $4.523, then dipped to $4.12 before closing at $4.135.
• Total volume hit 1.86 million, with turnover reaching $7.3 million—highlighting a volatile session.
• A bearish divergence appears as price rallied but volume failed to confirm strength.
• 61.8% Fibonacci level of $4.295 and 38.2% level of $4.429 defined key swing ranges.

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at $4.398 on 2025-11-10 12:00 ET, hitting an intra-day high of $4.523 before falling to a low of $4.12 during the 24-hour period. It closed at $4.135 on 2025-11-11 12:00 ET. Total volume was 1.86 million, and notional turnover stood at approximately $7.3 million, reflecting increased participation but also heightened uncertainty. Price action displayed a bearish divergence, with volume failing to confirm strength during late-hour rallies.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern as it closed below a bullish candle on the 15-minute chart during the final hours. A large bearish candle on the 1-hour timeframe confirmed the downward bias. Key support levels include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4.295 and the 38.2% level at $4.429. The 2025-11-10 low at $4.12 may serve as the next critical test for bearish continuation.

Support & Resistance

Immediate support is found at the $4.12–$4.135 range, with the next target at $4.10. Resistance levels include the 38.2% retracement at $4.429 and the intra-day high of $4.523. A breakout above $4.523 would signal a reversal of recent bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a death cross. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is currently at $4.44, suggesting a bearish bias for the next 24 hours. The 200-period MA is at $4.40, reinforcing the potential for further declines.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the final trading hours, confirming bearish momentum. RSI bottomed near 28, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to generate a rebound, suggesting exhaustion in the short-term. A move back above 40 on RSI may indicate a temporary bounce, but a sustained move above 50 is unlikely without stronger volume.

Bollinger Bands

Price action spent a significant portion of the 24-hour period outside the lower Bollinger Band, indicating heightened volatility. A contraction of the bands is not evident, suggesting that volatility is likely to remain elevated. The closing price of $4.135 sits closer to the lower band, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night hours, peaking at $4.135, but failed to push the price higher. Notional turnover reached a high of $7.3 million, concentrated in the 10:00 PM to 4:00 AM ET timeframe. A divergence between volume and price—where volume fails to confirm price strength—raises caution about the sustainability of any near-term rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the $4.135 close is near the 61.8% retracement level from the $4.523 high to the $4.12 low. This level is a key support zone. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level is at $4.429, and the 50% level is at $4.315—both levels may act as pivot points in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting approach could use RSI as a signal generator, with entries at RSI < 30 and exits at RSI > 70 on a 15-minute time frame. Given the recent bearish divergence and lack of volume confirmation, the strategy would likely have triggered an exit on the higher RSI readings during the late-night rally. A valid ticker symbol is required to fetch the RSI data and execute the full backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11.