Chainbase/Turkish Lira Market Overview

Summary
• CTRY opened at 3.709 and closed at 3.804 within the 24-hour period.
• Price surged to an intra-day high of 3.934 before retracting toward 3.767.
• Total volume reached 1.33M, with turnover rising amid heightened volatility.
• RSI and MACD suggest mixed momentum, with potential overbought conditions in the late session.
• Bollinger Bands highlight a sharp volatility expansion following the 3.886 peak.

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at 3.709 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.804 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 3.934 and a low of 3.685, with total volume of 1,330,826 and turnover of approximately $5,090,651 over the 24-hour window. Price action displayed a bullish bias in the early hours of the morning, followed by a bearish consolidation toward the close.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near 3.709–3.747, signaling a short-term reversal. A doji at 3.843–3.843 indicated indecision near key resistance. The 3.886 high marked a bearish reversal candle with a long upper wick. A support level appears to form at 3.767 after three failed attempts to break below it.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover in the early morning session, supporting the rally toward 3.934. The 50-period MA currently sits above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, indicating medium-term bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed above zero early in the morning, confirming the bullish bias until 3.934. RSI peaked near 70 at 3.934, hinting at overbought conditions. A bearish divergence appeared in the late session with RSI peaking at 3.934 and the price dropping to 3.767.

Bollinger Bands

Price broke above the upper band during the 5.00 AM–5.15 AM ET rally to 3.934, indicating strong volatility. The bands had contracted earlier in the session, which often precedes breakouts. Price is now consolidating within the bands but remains above the 20-period MA.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 5.00 AM–5.15 AM ET session, correlating with the 3.934 high. Turnover aligned with price strength, peaking at that time. A divergence appears later in the session, as volume declined while price dropped from 3.934 to 3.767, suggesting weakening conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels align with the 3.865 and 3.809 zones, where price consolidated during the 12:00–6:00 AM ET period. A bearish 61.8% retracement from 3.934 could bring support to 3.767, where it found a floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the overbought RSI peak at 70 near 3.934 and the subsequent bearish divergence, a backtesting strategy could be designed to sell on RSI > 70 or when a bearish divergence appears in the 15-minute chart. For example, using RSI > 70 as an overbought signal and a falling close despite a rising RSI could trigger a sell entry. This aligns with the recent price behavior and could serve as a rule-based trading strategy for CTRY and similar low-cap FX pairs. To test this approach, specify a target asset (e.g., SPY) and RSI threshold (e.g., 70) to generate backtest results.