Chainbase/Turkish Lira Market Overview

Summary
• Price dropped from 4.21 to 3.973, forming bearish engulfing and breakdown patterns.
• Momentum weakened with RSI entering oversold territory and MACD negative.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, and volume surged during the selloff.

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at 4.203 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 4.233 and a low of 3.966 before closing at 4.014 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 413,227.9, and total turnover amounted to $1,677,985.29. The price action displayed a bearish bias with sharp declines and muted rebounds, suggesting a weakening trend.

Price moved in a descending channel, with key support forming around 4.00–4.01 and resistance at 4.15–4.16. A breakdown candle with a long lower wick at 3.973 confirmed bearish momentum. The 15-minute chart showed a 20-period EMA below the 50-period EMA, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily scale, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period MA, adding bearish bias.

MACD (12,26,9) remained below the zero line, with bearish divergence between price and histogram. RSI hovered near oversold levels (30–35), signaling potential exhaustion in the selloff but not necessarily a reversal. Bollinger Bands widened during the decline, indicating heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band, consistent with bearish pressure.

Volume surged during the 19:15–20:45 ET selloff, confirming the breakdown. However, notional turnover did not match the volume spike, indicating weaker conviction. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 4.162–4.004 swing show 61.8% at ~4.043 and 38.2% at ~4.084. The price is near 4.043, potentially setting up for a test of the 38.2% level.

The RSI and MACD indicators were central to the backtest strategy that underperformed. Despite RSI hitting oversold levels, the strategy of buying and holding for one day failed to capture rebounds, yielding a win ratio of 18.18% and a net loss of $7.02. This outcome suggests that RSI may not be a reliable reversal signal in a trending or range-bound market. Momentum remains key, and without divergence in the MACD or confirmation from volume, oversold signals may lack predictive power.