Chainbase/Turkish Lira Market Overview

• CTRY opened at 4.365 and closed at 4.470 with a 15.9% increase
• A strong bearish reversal pattern appeared around 4.473, followed by a sharp rebound
• Volume spiked during the rebound, confirming bullish momentum
• RSI entered overbought territory, signaling potential for near-term consolidation

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at 4.365 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 4.470 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended between 4.31 and 4.511. Total trading volume reached 509,090.7 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,297,824.4.

Structure & Formations

The daily OHLCV data reveals a bearish reversal pattern forming near 4.473 around 05:15 ET, marked by a long upper shadow and a sharp rebound afterward. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged as prices rebounded above 4.470, indicating short-term support. A doji appeared at 04:45 ET, hinting at indecision before the upswing. Key resistance levels appear at 4.496 and 4.511, while 4.473 and 4.456 serve as critical support levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA early in the session, forming a potential golden cross. By the end of the 24-hour period, the 50-period MA caught up, indicating a shift in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting that the broader trend is still bearish, though short-term traders are showing bullish intent.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive after 04:00 ET, signaling a shift in bullish momentum, and crossed above the signal line at around 05:00 ET, reinforcing a potential buy signal. RSI moved into overbought territory (above 70) by 09:00 ET, suggesting that CTRY may consolidate or pull back in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

The price touched the upper Bollinger Band at 4.511 and then retracted, while the lower band hovered around 4.420. The bands showed a moderate expansion during the rebound phase, indicating increased volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the rebound, particularly between 04:15 ET and 06:00 ET, confirming bullish momentum. A divergence between price and volume appeared after 08:00 ET, as volume dropped while the price continued to rise. Total notional turnover spiked to $2.3M, driven by large-volume trades around 05:15 ET and 15:15 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 4.473 and rebounded. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels align with key support at 4.456 and 4.420. A retest of the 61.8% level could confirm the strength of the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy utilized close prices for signal generation and enforced a strict one-day holding period, reflecting the market's fast-moving nature. The strategy appears to align with the observed price behavior—particularly the strong rebounds off key Fibonacci levels and the confirmation from volume spikes. While the RSI reached overbought levels, the lack of a stop-loss mechanism in the strategy exposes it to potential losses if a sharp pullback occurs. The upcoming 24-hour period will test the strength of support at 4.473 and the sustainability of the bullish momentum.