Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) Market Overview

• CTRY declined sharply from 4.019 to 3.653, forming bearish continuation patterns.
• Volatility expanded during the early morning, with a large-volume bearish reversal.
• RSI entered oversold territory, but price remained below key support at 3.734.
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp contraction ahead of the morning selloff.
• Strong selling pressure was confirmed by diverging volume and price action.

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at 4.019 on November 13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.784 on November 14 at the same time. The 24-hour range spanned from a high of 4.019 to a low of 3.653, with a close at 3.784. Total volume amounted to 1,240,849.4 units, and turnover was 4,134,780.0 Turkish Lira. The pair appears to have broken key support and entered a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure shows a distinct bearish bias over the 24-hour period, with a series of bearish engulfing and inside bars forming after the initial decline from 4.019 to 3.653. A key support level appears to be forming around 3.734, where price has bounced multiple times in the past few days. Resistance is now at 3.83 and 3.909, with a doji forming around 3.923 as a potential reversal signal. A morning breakdown from 3.83 confirmed the bearish shift.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending lower, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Price is currently below both, suggesting continued downward pressure. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA acts as a strong bearish reference, with the 50-period MA also trending lower. The cross between 50 and 100-period MAs suggests a possible continuation of the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is in negative territory with a bearish crossover, confirming the downward bias. The histogram has been shrinking, which may indicate waning bearish momentum, but the RSI remains in oversold territory, suggesting limited upside potential. RSI is hovering near 30, indicating that the pair could see some short-term bounce before resuming its downward trajectory.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction late on November 13, followed by a sharp expansion during the early hours of November 14, coinciding with the large-volume selloff. Price has since remained within the lower band, signaling continued bearish volatility. A retest of the upper band at 3.83–3.85 could trigger a retracement, but a sustained break above this level appears unlikely without a surge in buying interest.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning selloff, with a 15-minute candle on November 14 at 04:45 ET showing an unusually high volume of 146,584.5 units. This volume divergence with the sharp price drop confirms the bearish move. Turnover was also elevated during this period, indicating significant selling pressure. However, recent volume has been declining, which could hint at a potential pause in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the recent 15-minute swing (4.019–3.653) show 3.80 as a key 50% retracement level. The 61.8% level at 3.74 is also a critical area for potential consolidation. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest a potential short-term rebound to 3.83–3.85, but a sustained break above this would require significant volume and buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes entries when price enters the range of 3.653–3.734 (the recent support level) and exits when price enters 3.908–3.935 (the resistance zone). This approach assumes that CTRY may consolidate in the lower band before attempting a retracement. The strategy relies on technical confirmation through price action and volume, but does not specify stop-loss or take-profit constraints, making it sensitive to market volatility. Given the current bearish structure, an entry within 3.653–3.734 would carry higher risk without robust directional momentum.