Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) Market Overview

• Price surged ~2.1% in 24h, breaking above key resistance at 4.90 after a bearish correction.
• Volume spiked over 3x average during early morning ET, suggesting short-term conviction in bullish momentum.
• RSI near 55 indicates moderate strength; MACD remains positive, hinting at ongoing bullish energy.
• Key support levels at 4.85–4.80 appear intact; price could retest these if volatility increases.
• 20-period EMA crossed above 50-period EMA, confirming a short-term bullish bias.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-13, CTRY opened at 4.678 and closed at 4.844 by 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 5.019 and a low of 4.664. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,397,647.2, with a notional turnover of ~11,955,645 Turkish Lira, indicating strong participation.

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a dynamic 24-hour session, with a strong bullish thrust beginning around 07:00–09:00 ET. A key resistance at 4.90 was broken decisively on high-volume bullish candles, followed by a corrective move into the early hours of 10-13. However, a consolidation phase post 12:00 ET suggests traders are digesting the recent move. Notable candlestick patterns include a bearish engulfing formation during the 21:00–21:30 ET window, hinting at temporary exhaustion, and a bullish harami during the 07:15–07:30 ET session, signaling potential trend continuation.

Bollinger Bands show an expansion in volatility during the morning hours, with price action staying above the 20-period EMA for much of the session. The RSI remains in the mid-range (55–65), suggesting moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. The MACD histogram remains positive but has started to contract, indicating waning short-term bullish pressure. A 50-period EMA currently sits at ~4.87, offering a potential support/resistance zone.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the key 4.664 to 5.019 swing suggest 61.8% retracement at ~4.88, which appears to be acting as a dynamic support. The 38.2% level (~4.85) may be next in line if the corrective phase continues. Volume divergences are visible in the early morning hours, with price dipping lower despite volume rising, suggesting short-term bearish conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis: The recent bearish engulfing pattern on 2025-10-12 at 21:00 ET could be a viable signal for a one-day short strategy, assuming entry at the next candle’s open and exit at close. This aligns with the technical structure and volume behavior observed. A backtest from 2022-01-01 through today on the correct ticker would provide clarity on the pattern’s historical reliability.