Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) Market Overview

• CTRY opened at $10.515 and surged to $10.964 before correcting to $10.038 by 10:00 ET.
• Momentum accelerated in early overnight hours before diverging with volume near intraday highs.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening and RSI hitting 67, suggesting near overbought levels.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $10.75–$10.616, followed by a 13% correction from peak to trough.
• Turnover spiked to $1.05M during the morning rally but softened after 10:00 ET.

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at $10.515 on 2025-09-16 and reached an intraday high of $10.964 on 2025-09-17. The 24-hour candle closed at $10.078, with a total trading volume of 1,012,093.9 and a notional turnover of $10,163,211.8. Price action featured a sharp rally, a bearish reversal, and a prolonged consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a strong bearish reversal from the morning highs. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at $10.75–$10.616, indicating institutional selling pressure. This was followed by a strong bearish move to $10.078, forming a potential key support zone around $10.0–$10.1. Notable resistance levels were observed at $10.60–10.65 and $10.80–10.90. A doji formed near $10.15 at the end of the session, suggesting indecision and possible short-term support reinforcement.

Structure Summary

Key resistance levels include $10.60, $10.80, and $10.90, while critical support lies at $10.05, $10.15, and $10.25. The bearish engulfing pattern around $10.75–10.616 was confirmed by a subsequent pullback, reinforcing the likelihood of further testing of the lower support zone.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line during the morning rally, signaling a bullish bias. However, this was quickly reversed as the 50-period line crossed back above the 20-period line in the afternoon. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at $10.45 and the 100-period at $10.60, with price now below both, suggesting bearish momentum.

MACD (12,26,9) shows a bearish crossover in the afternoon as the line dropped below the signal line. The histogram turned negative and expanded during the consolidation phase, indicating increased bearish pressure.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 67 during the rally but declined to 41 by the end of the session, indicating oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands expanded during the consolidation phase, with price sitting near the lower band in the final hours, suggesting low volatility and a possible bounce scenario.

Volume and Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked during the morning rally, with the highest turnover recorded at $10.964–$10.894. However, as the price moved lower, volume significantly declined, indicating reduced conviction in the bearish move. A divergence between price and turnover was observed in the afternoon, with price falling but turnover failing to confirm the strength of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from $10.515 to $10.964, key levels at 38.2% ($10.78) and 61.8% ($10.68) were tested before the price consolidated below $10.60. On the daily chart, the retracement from the prior high of $10.96 to the low of $10.078 suggests potential support at 38.2% ($10.55) and resistance at 61.8% ($10.68).

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when the 20-period moving average crosses above the 50-period line on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss placed below the nearest key support level and a take profit at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the current swing. A short position is initiated when the 50-period MA crosses below the 20-period line, with a stop loss above the nearest resistance and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The 20/50 MA crossover and Fibonacci levels observed today align with this strategy, and the recent divergence in volume may indicate a possible reversal opportunity in the near term. This hypothesis could be tested over the next 24 hours as the market approaches key support and resistance levels.