Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) Market Overview: 24-Hour Volatility, Key Support, and Bearish Exhaustion

• Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) saw a strong bearish reversal from ~7.99 to ~7.35 in 24 hours, with oversold RSI and expanding volatility.
• A key support level formed around 7.32–7.35, confirmed by multiple closes and a large bearish engulfing pattern.
• Volume spiked during the sharp selloff but faded in the late hours, suggesting exhaustion rather than sustained bearish momentum.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 7.51 (38.2%) and 7.66 (61.8%) may act as near-term resistance on a rebound.

Market Context and Price Action

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at 7.352 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and hit a high of 7.99 before closing at 7.35 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour period recorded a low of 7.32 and a total volume of ~14.1 million units traded, with a notional turnover of ~$102 million. The price action reflected a sharp bearish reversal, especially between 18:45 ET and 19:15 ET, when a massive candle printed an 8.45 high and closed at 7.96. This marked the start of a sustained downtrend that ended in oversold territory.

Structure and Key Levels

A strong bearish engulfing pattern developed around 7.40–7.35 in the early hours of October 5, confirming the breakdown from key resistance that had been forming near 7.50–7.60. A critical support zone emerged between 7.32 and 7.35, reinforced by multiple 15-minute closes within this range. A doji near 7.33 at 05:15 ET and a long lower wick in the 03:00–03:15 ET candle suggest short-term buying interest. Key Fibonacci levels at 7.51 (38.2%) and 7.66 (61.8%) could cap any near-term rebound.

Momentum, Volatility, and Indicators

The RSI dropped sharply into oversold territory (~25) by early morning on October 5, suggesting potential near-term stabilisation or a short-covering bounce. MACD turned negative in the afternoon of October 4, with a bearish crossover forming as the signal line crossed above the histogram. Bollinger Bands expanded dramatically during the sell-off, with price bottoming near the lower band, indicating high volatility. Volume during the peak of the selloff was over 2.6 million units, but it dropped significantly after 03:00 ET, suggesting bearish exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term reversal strategy could involve entering long positions near the 7.32–7.35 support zone with a stop below 7.25 and a target at 7.45–7.51. Given the bearish momentum and oversold RSI, a 1.5-hour reversal setup (e.g., bullish engulfing or a doji at support) could be used as entry confirmation. A backtest over a 20-day window with this setup might show a ~60–70% success rate, especially during periods of high volatility and clear trend exhaustion.