On-chain Night Recap: Whale Actively Rebalances Holdings, Bulls Pivot to Defensive Strategy

On-chain activity in recent trading sessions has been marked by significant whale movements and a shift in investor strategy. Large holders are actively rebalancing portfolios, while bullish positions are being increasingly hedged with defensive strategies. Analysts note that this behavior is consistent with market volatility and uncertainty in early 2026.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen record outflows following a sharp price correction in late 2025. The redemptions totaled $4.57 billion for bitcoin ETFs and $2 billion for ether products over November and December, reflecting investor caution as prices retreated from recent highs.

Webull Corp (BULL) reported strong earnings for Q3 2025, with adjusted operating profit reaching $36.7 million. The firm's Q3 2025 results exceeded forecasts by 133.33%, with revenue rising 55% year-over-year to $156.9 million.

Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) also reported Q3 2025 results, posting adjusted net investment income of $0.32 per share in line with expectations. Despite the results, shares fell 3.07% post-announcement. The firm highlighted AI and data center investments as key growth areas.

Why Did This Happen?

The recent rebalancing by whale holders is partly attributed to macroeconomic uncertainty and the potential for new Trump-era tariff policies. Analysts suggest that the move to defensive strategies is also driven by the broader economic outlook and global market conditions.

The crypto market saw a major security breach in early 2025 when Bybit suffered a $1.4 billion theft, marking the largest recorded incident in the industry. Attackers exploited Safe-based multisig wallets, draining funds across several networks.

In the retail and consumer sector, Canada Goose (GOOS) posted a Q2 2025 loss of $0.16 per share, falling well below forecasts. The company reported a net loss of 13M CAD, down from a profit last year, as it faces challenges in key markets such as China and the UK.

How Did Markets React?

Investor sentiment in the crypto space has shifted dramatically, with many investors pulling back on risk exposure. ETFs have seen significant outflows as prices for bitcoin and ether fell roughly 20% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The pullback has led to broader market reassessments and a shift in risk management strategies.

In a notable bet, crypto executive Kain Warwick lost a $50,000 wager with Kyle Samani after betting that Ether would hit $25,000 by year-end 2025. Ether closed at roughly $2,980, failing to meet the target. Warwick now expects a more conservative price target of $10,000 for 2026.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring the impact of Trump's proposed 2026 tariff policies on the crypto market. The potential for increased economic uncertainty and higher cross-border transaction costs could affect the adoption and use of cryptocurrencies in various sectors.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are being viewed as potential safe-haven assets amid global policy uncertainty. However, increased tariffs may also suppress risk appetite and negatively impact prices in the short term. Investors are advised to remain cautious and track policy developments closely.

The broader market is also watching for signs of recovery in key crypto assets and for further developments in institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. As the year progresses, both bullish and bearish scenarios remain plausible depending on macroeconomic conditions and policy shifts.