CFTC Green Light Propels Polymarket's $9B Surge, Outpacing Legal-Harassed Rival Kalshi

Polymarket, the online betting platform for real-world outcomes, is poised to begin its initial U.S. relaunch in November, according to a Coindesk report. The platform, which allows users to wager on political elections, court rulings, and geopolitical events, has seen a dramatic surge in valuation, with sources indicating it is now considering a deal that would value the company at $9 billion. This marks a sharp increase from its $1 billion valuation in June, when it raised funds in a round led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, the report said.

The relaunch follows regulatory clearance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which ended a four-year ban on Polymarket's U.S. operations. In 2021, the CFTC barred the platform from offering prediction contracts domestically, but earlier this year, it granted approval to operate under federal oversight, the report noted. This regulatory shift has positioned Polymarket for growth, particularly as it prepares to enter the U.S. market, where demand for prediction markets has intensified. During the 2024 U.S. election cycle, the platform processed over $8 billion in wagers, outpacing major sports betting platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings, the report added.

The U.S. relaunch comes amid a broader boom in prediction markets, with rival Kalshi also seeing its valuation rise to $5 billion from $2 billion earlier this year, the report said. However, Kalshi faces legal challenges, including a recent lawsuit in New York, where the state's Gaming Commission ordered it to cease operations for offering unlicensed sports-related contracts, as reported by TradingView. Kalshi argues it is federally regulated by the CFTC and not subject to state gambling laws, a position it has successfully defended in previous legal battles in Nevada and New Jersey. Polymarket's CFTC approval may give it a competitive edge in navigating regulatory hurdles, particularly as states like New York scrutinize prediction market operators.

Political connections have also bolstered Polymarket's profile. Donald Trump Jr.'s venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, invested tens of millions in the company, with Trump Jr. joining as an advisor, the report said. This ties the platform to a broader political narrative, as prediction markets remain contentious in Washington. Critics argue they risk fueling misinformation, while supporters highlight their role in aggregating public sentiment and forecasting outcomes.

The U.S. relaunch could further accelerate Polymarket's growth, particularly as it capitalizes on institutional momentum and shifting regulatory attitudes toward crypto and digital assets. With a user base that has surged since its CFTC approval, the platform is well-positioned to expand its market share ahead of the 2026 election cycle.