CFTC Clears Path for Prediction Markets' Comeback in U.S.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a no-action letter that effectively clears Polymarket to relaunch its U.S. prediction market operations, marking a significant regulatory milestone for the crypto-based platform. The letter, granted to QCX—a derivatives exchange recently acquired by Polymarket—allows the firm to avoid certain recordkeeping and reporting obligations under CFTC rules, enabling it to operate within a defined regulatory framework [1]. This development follows years of legal scrutiny and regulatory hurdles that had forced Polymarket to block U.S. user access in 2022 after a settlement with the agency over failure to register as a designated contract market [4].

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan confirmed the green light, expressing gratitude for the CFTC’s swift action and calling the process “accomplished in record timing” [2]. The no-action letter, issued by the CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight and Division of Clearing and Risk, specifies that the agency will not pursue enforcement actions against QCX or its clearinghouse for certain compliance failures. While the letter does not directly address Polymarket, it provides a regulatory pathway for the platform to operate within the U.S. by leveraging QCX’s existing license [4]. This move aligns with broader efforts by the Trump administration to reduce regulatory friction in the crypto sector, with the CFTC recently shifting its stance toward a more accommodating approach [1].

The approval comes amid a broader regulatory shift in the U.S., where both the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have indicated a more permissive attitude toward crypto activities. In a joint statement, the agencies affirmed that registered trading platforms are permitted to facilitate the trading of certain spot crypto asset products, signaling a coordinated effort to integrate digital assets into the traditional financial framework [7]. Acting CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham emphasized that the agency aims to foster growth in crypto markets, describing the recent action as “the latest demonstration of our mutual objective of supporting growth and development in these markets.”

Polymarket’s return to the U.S. follows a strategic acquisition of QCX in July 2025, which had already secured CFTC approval for its exchange application earlier that month [5]. The firm’s reentry also coincides with growing interest in prediction markets, particularly those centered on U.S. political and economic events. For instance, Polymarket’s 2024 U.S. presidential election market saw nearly $3.7 billion in trading volume, accurately predicting Donald Trump’s victory, a result that contrasted with most traditional polling [4]. With regulatory uncertainty now largely resolved, Polymarket is positioned to compete directly with Kalshi and other emerging U.S. prediction market platforms [5].

Despite the regulatory progress, challenges remain. The CFTC’s no-action letter is limited in scope, applying only to specific compliance issues and not offering a broad endorsement of Polymarket’s entire business model. Additionally, the platform’s recent acquisition of QCX and the involvement of high-profile figures such as Donald Trump Jr. have drawn attention to the company’s operations and governance [6]. As Polymarket prepares to launch its U.S. services, it will need to balance rapid expansion with adherence to evolving regulatory expectations and market demands.

Source: [1] U.S. CFTC Gives Go-Ahead For Polymarket's New Exchange QCX (https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/09/03/u-s-cftc-gives-go-ahead-for-polymarket-s-new-exchange-qcx) [2] Polymarket CEO confirms readiness to launch in US after CFTC approval (https://cryptobriefing.com/polymarket-us-launch-cftc/) [4] Polymarket Gets Green Light to Operate Prediction Markets in US (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-gets-green-light-operate-180141212.html) [5] Polymarket secures regulatory clearance to relaunch in US (https://coinjournal.net/news/polymarket-secures-regulatory-clearance-to-relaunch-in-the-us/) [6] Polymarket Set To Go Live In The US Following CFTC Approval (https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1093206-20250904) [7] U.S. SEC, CFTC Combine Forces to Clear Registered Firms for Spot Crypto Trading (https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/09/02/u-s-sec-cftc-combine-forces-to-clear-registered-firms-trading-of-spot-crypto)