U.S. CFTC Aluminium Speculative Net Positions Hit -2400.0, Signaling Sectoral Divergence in Market Exposure

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for December 2025 reveals a striking divergence in speculative positioning across aluminium futures contracts, exposing asymmetric risks and opportunities for investors. The Aluminium Euro Prem Duty-Paid (Code 191696) contract, a key benchmark for automotive-grade aluminium, has seen speculative net short positions expand to -2,315 contracts, while construction-linked Aluminium Midwest Premium (MWP) futures (Code 191693) remain in a speculative net long of 1,054 contracts. This split underscores a fundamental reallocation of capital between sectors with divergent exposure to aluminium's structural supply constraints and pricing dynamics.

Construction-Linked Aluminium: A Bullish Case for Infrastructure Hedges

The MWP contract's speculative net long position of 1,054 contracts reflects robust hedging activity by commercial participants, with 84.1% of long positions held by producers and end-users. This concentration signals confidence in construction-linked demand, driven by U.S. Section 232 tariffs, Chinese production caps, and policy-driven infrastructure spending under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The MWP price of $1,323/MT has historically correlated with a 12–15% outperformance in construction equities within three months, as seen in firms like Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) and Vulcan Materials (VLC).

Investors should prioritize construction-linked firms with pricing power and infrastructure exposure. These companies benefit from a tightening cost-of-carry environment, where supply constraints and policy tailwinds create a self-reinforcing cycle of demand and price resilience. For example, a 57% drop in speculative net longs in July 2025 coincided with a reacceleration in construction-linked equities, demonstrating the predictive power of positioning data.

Automotive-Grade Aluminium: A Bearish Outlook for Unhedged Margins

In contrast, the Euro Prem Duty-Paid contract's speculative net short of 2,315 contracts highlights automakers' vulnerability to un-hedged aluminium costs. Non-commercial short positions surged by 1,490 contracts, amplifying concerns over margin compression. Tesla (TSLA) exemplifies this risk: its EBITDA margins fell from 14% in 2023 to 6% in Q2 2025, directly tied to aluminium price inflation. Unlike construction firms, automakers lack pricing power to offset rising input costs, especially in a weak demand environment.

Ford (F) has mitigated some of this risk through a $1.2 billion long-term aluminium supply agreement, but Tesla's reliance on spot markets leaves it exposed. The speculative net short in Euro Prem futures serves as a macroeconomic signal for investors to underweight unhedged automotive stocks or hedge exposure via aluminium futures options.

Strategic Implications for Investors

The CFTC data underscores a sectoral re-rating in capital markets:
1. Overweight construction-linked equities: Firms like KALU and VLC are positioned to benefit from policy-driven demand and supply constraints.
2. Underweight unhedged automotive stocks: Tesla and others without hedging strategies face margin compression risks.
3. Diversify with packaging firms: Ball Corp (BLL) and WestRock (WRK) offer a counterbalance, leveraging recycling buffers and deflationary price trends in certain segments.

The cost-of-carry environment further amplifies these dynamics. Weekly monitoring of speculative positions is critical, as shifts in positioning can act as leading indicators for equity performance. For instance, a 57% drop in speculative net longs in July 2025 preceded a reacceleration in construction-linked equities, illustrating the importance of real-time data in a tightening market.

Policy and Trade Dynamics: A Double-Edged Sword

Trade policy remains a wildcard. The U.S. has maintained a 50% tariff on most aluminium imports, while Canada's retaliatory tariffs and CUSMA compliance burdens complicate cross-border trade. These measures have driven Midwest premiums to record highs, with the MWP contract trading at $0.7323/lb in September 2025. While this benefits construction-linked firms, it exacerbates margin pressures for automakers reliant on imported materials.

Conclusion: Navigating Asymmetric Risks

The December 2025 CFTC report highlights a critical inflection point in the aluminium market. Construction-linked aluminium is in a structural bull case, supported by policy-driven demand and supply constraints. Conversely, automotive-grade aluminium faces a bearish outlook, with un-hedged costs eroding margins. Investors must align portfolios with these divergent trajectories, prioritizing hedged, pricing-power-rich sectors while hedging exposure to cost-sensitive industries.

As the market evolves, the interplay of trade policy, supply constraints, and sector-specific demand dynamics will remain pivotal. The CFTC's positioning data offers a roadmap for identifying asymmetric risks and opportunities, enabling investors to capitalize on the aluminium market's bifurcation.