CF's Cash Flow Strength: Can It Fuel More Growth and Returns?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF generated solid cash flows in the fourth quarter of 2025, thanks to strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. Its net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the quarter, up roughly 28% year over year. For full-year 2025, net cash from operating activities was $2.75 billion, while free cash flow was $1.79 billion, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively.

CF’s substantial cash flows and strong balance sheet enable it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were nearly $2 billion at the end of 2025. It returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. CF is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages.

The company expects to continue generating significant free cash flow, leveraging its high-margin business, strategic execution and favorable global nitrogen industry dynamics, allowing it to invest in growth opportunities and enhance returns to its shareholders.

Among its peers, The Mosaic Company MOS generated an operating cash flow of $825 million in 2025, down roughly 36% year over year. Mosaic’s operating cash flow was hurt by inventory builds in both finished products and raw materials. In addition to significantly reducing cash flow, the increase in working capital also led to an $829 million rise in net debt. Mosaic sees cash flow remaining constrained by lower EBITDA in the near term.

Nutrien Ltd. NTR generated solid cash flows in the fourth quarter, aided by favorable fertilizer market fundamentals. Cash provided in operating activities was $2.98 billion in the fourth quarter. Nutrien generated an operating cash flow of $4 billion for full-year 2025. NTR’s actions to drive volumes, strong retail earnings and measures to optimize portfolio contributed to strong cash flow generation in 2025.

CF’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

CF Industries has rallied 91.3% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 48.9%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 16.08, a 1.6% premium relative to the industry average of 15.83X. It carries a Value Score of B.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year decline of 6.7% and 25.7%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

CF stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

5 Stocks Set to Double

Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the months ahead. They include

Stock #1: A Disruptive Force with Notable Growth and Resilience

Stock #2: Bullish Signs Signaling to Buy the Dip

Stock #3: One of the Most Compelling Investments in the Market

Stock #4: Leader In a Red-Hot Industry Poised for Growth

Stock #5: Modern Omni-Channel Platform Coiled to Spring

Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +171%, +209% and +232%.

See Our Newest 5 Stocks Set to Double Picks >>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): Free Stock Analysis Report

The Mosaic Company (MOS): Free Stock Analysis Report

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research