CEX Outflows: 6,501 BTC vs. $-344M Selling

The immediate pressure is stark. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin saw a net outflow of 6,501.29 BTC from centralized exchanges, while trading volume turned negative at $-343.72M. This is a clear signal of selling, with investors moving coins out of exchange wallets, likely to hold or move elsewhere.

This outflow occurs against a brutal market backdrop. Bitcoin is down roughly 50% from its October peak, and the total crypto market cap has nearly halved. The selling here is part of a broader risk-asset de-rating, not an isolated event.

The bottom line is that this flow confirms the market is in a clear drawdown phase. The negative volume and significant BTC outflow show active selling pressure at a time of deep price weakness.

The Price Impact: Flow vs. Price Action

The data shows a clear contradiction. Despite a net outflow of 6,501 BTC from CEXs in the past day, Bitcoin's price fell roughly 4.8% earlier this week. This disconnect highlights that the outflow is being overwhelmed by broader, more powerful selling pressure across the market.

The context is key. This outflow follows five consecutive weeks of ETF withdrawals, a period of institutional selling. The recent reversal with $1.02 billion in ETF inflows over three days suggests a potential shift, with some capital now buying the dip. The large BTC outflow could represent this new accumulation moving coins off exchanges to hold long-term.

Yet, this positive flow is being drowned out. The market is in a deep drawdown, down about 50% from its peak, with total crypto market cap nearly halved. Broader risk-asset selling, driven by macro factors like tariffs and geopolitical tensions, is creating a powerful headwind that any accumulation phase cannot yet overcome.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch Next

First, monitor the weekly ETF outflow trend. The recent $1.02 billion in inflows over three days is a positive reversal, but it follows five consecutive weeks of withdrawals. For price stability, this inflow momentum must become sustained. A return to weekly outflows would signal that the dip-buying is temporary, reinforcing the broader risk-asset de-rating.

Second, track the $60,000–$62,000 support zone. Bitcoin is already down roughly 50% from its peak, and a weekly close below this area would confirm a downside break. That move would likely target the next major support cluster between $49,000 and $53,000, extending the current drawdown phase.

Third, watch the relationship between CEX flows and derivatives metrics like Open Interest. The recent 6,501 BTC outflow from CEXs shows active selling, but this is happening alongside a potential accumulation phase in ETFs. A divergence-where CEX outflows slow or reverse while Open Interest in futures contracts remains elevated-could signal a shift in market structure, with holding behavior changing as the market stabilizes.