CEX Net Outflow of 6,317.80 BTC and 59,600 ETH Amid Bitcoin ETF Flows and Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant inflow of $471.3 million on January 2, 2026, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which saw $287.4 million in net inflows. This marks the largest single-day inflow for IBIT since early October 2025 and the highest since a mid-November 2025 $524 million inflow. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has rallied above $90,000 after a two-week outflow streak was snapped by these ETF flows. The ETF inflows reflect a broader institutional rebalancing at the start of 2026 and the end of tax-loss harvesting in Q4.

The inflows coincided with heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. This move caused oil prices to drop to four-year lows and shifted macro risk sentiment in favor of Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge. Bitcoin’s price has risen from around $87,480 to an intraday high of $93,169, representing a 3.3% gain over the past week. The asset remains below its October 2025 peak but is trading above key support levels, including the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $91,488.

Ethereum ETFs also saw increased inflows, with about $161 million in fresh capital over the same period. Grayscale’s Ethereum Staking ETF (ETHE) made history by becoming the first U.S. Ethereum ETF to distribute staking rewards. ETHE shareholders received $0.083 per share from staking rewards earned between October 6, 2025, and December 31, 2025. This development signals growing institutional interest in Ethereum's staking capabilities and adds an income layer for investors.

Why Did This Happen?

The surge in ETF inflows is driven by the January effect, where investors rebalance portfolios after underperforming assets in late 2025. BlackRock’s IBIT has become the primary institutional gateway into Bitcoin exposure, with nearly $24.7 billion in cumulative inflows in 2025. The ETF structure eliminates custody risk for institutions and aligns with existing portfolio and risk management systems.

The geopolitical environment further supports Bitcoin’s appeal as a macro hedge. The Trump administration’s assertive stance and the U.S. military’s involvement in Venezuela have increased Bitcoin's role as a strategic asset. Analysts have framed Bitcoin as a portable reserve asset in a world where Washington is prepared to reshape global trade relationships.

How Did Markets Respond?

The ETF flows translated into stronger price action for Bitcoin, which confirmed a breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. While the price remains below its October peak, the asset has gained nearly 14% from its November low and is trading in the low-$90,000s to low-$94,000s. Analysts note that the market is being supported by ETF demand but lacks organic conviction, with on-chain metrics indicating fatigue.

Ethereum’s price has also seen a rebound, with the asset rising 9% in the past seven days to trade above $3,219. The total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum-based DeFi protocols increased by 6% in early 2026, compared to a 9% rise in Solana’s TVL. This divergence highlights growing institutional interest in Ethereum, though Solana remains a strong on-chain performer.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are monitoring several key levels and indicators to assess the sustainability of the current market conditions. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $91,488 is a critical support for Bitcoin. If the price holds above this level, bulls may push for a retest of the December high around $94,267. However, a break below $91,500 would undermine the recent breakout pattern and open a new range in the mid-$80,000s.

For Ethereum, the distribution of staking rewards is expected to continue attracting institutional capital. The market is also watching whether other spot Ethereum ETFs, including Morgan Stanley’s recently filed product, will follow Grayscale's lead and offer staking income to investors. The CLARITY Act in 2026 may further accelerate the adoption of staking-enabled ETFs.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum face potential risks if ETF flows reverse or if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. A sustained decline in ETF inflows could weaken the support structure for Bitcoin, particularly if on-chain capital continues to shrink. Institutions may also reassess their exposure if regulatory constraints or changes in U.S. monetary policy shift the risk-return profile of Bitcoin.

The market currently favors ETF-driven flows over organic conviction, with derivatives positioning and options pricing showing rising interest in upside scenarios. Traders are not paying up aggressively for downside protection, suggesting they are willing to tolerate a grinding higher move in Bitcoin. However, patience is limited if the price stalls under resistance for an extended period.