CEX Net Outflow of 10,385.98 BTC and Net Inflow of 135,000 ETH Amid Mixed ETF Flows

Bitcoin and Ethereum saw divergent trends in on-chain flows over the past seven days, with centralized exchanges (CEXs) recording a net outflow of 10,385.98 BTC and a net inflow of 135,000 ETH. According to economic reports, these figures suggest selective selling pressure on Bitcoin compared to continued accumulation in Ethereum. Exchange reserve balances for both assets remain near all-time lows, a sign that large-scale liquidations are not occurring.

The mixed flow pattern contrasts with broader ETF activity, which has shown strong inflows at the start of 2026. On January 2, U.S. spot crypto ETFs recorded a combined $646 million in net inflows, with Bitcoin ETFs leading the charge. BlackRock's IBIT alone attracted $287 million in new capital, the highest inflow among major products. Ethereum ETFs also saw robust movement, with Grayscale's ETHE and ETHE Mini Trust each pulling in over $50 million.

Altcoin ETFs bucked the trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum outflows, with XRP, Solana, and Litecoin products collectively gaining $12 million in net inflows. This shift highlights growing institutional interest in alternative digital assets, particularly those tied to emerging narratives like AI and real-world assets.

Why Did This Happen?

Market dynamics suggest a shift in investor sentiment from risk-off to selective accumulation. The combined inflows in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on January 2 reflect renewed institutional participation after a period of tax-loss harvesting and portfolio rebalancing at year-end 2025. Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest net inflow in 35 trading days, while Ethereum ETFs recorded the highest in 15 trading days.

Despite the strong ETF performance, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have remained range-bound. Bitcoin, for instance, is trading around $89,000, down about 30% from its October peak. This suggests that while inflows are driving optimism, broader macroeconomic factors—such as interest rate expectations and global liquidity—are still influencing price trajectories.

Exchange trading volumes reflect a subdued market environment. Centralized exchanges saw a 32% drop in December, with total spot trading volume falling to $1.13 trillion. Binance, ByBit, and other major platforms accounted for most of the activity, but the decline was attributed to seasonal factors and limited catalysts.

Decentralized exchange volume also declined, reaching $245 billion for the month. However, the DEX-to-CEX volume ratio increased, signaling a gradual shift toward self-custody solutions and on-chain execution.

The inflow into crypto ETFs has been accompanied by increased retail and institutional participation. On Stocktwits, sentiment around altcoins like Solana and XRP remained mixed, with Litecoin showing stronger bullish signals. This suggests that retail and institutional investors are aligning their strategies with ETF flows, particularly for alternative assets.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market analysts are closely watching institutional flows as key indicators of market stability. Akshat Siddhant of Mudrex notes that the recent market correction has created a healthier base for growth, supported by quantitative easing measures and improving liquidity. He also highlights that regulatory clarity across key economies is helping to reduce uncertainty and attract institutional capital.

Shetty, another analyst, points to the growing institutional appetite for regulated digital-asset products as a positive trend for 2026. This aligns with the continued inflows into ETFs and the broader shift toward institutional-grade custody and execution. Investors are encouraged to monitor ETF flows alongside on-chain metrics like realized capitalization and exchange reserves to gauge market direction.

In the coming months, the focus will likely shift to macroeconomic indicators, particularly interest rate decisions and global liquidity injections. The performance of Bitcoin ETFs and institutional outflows, such as the $99 million outflow from BlackRock's IBIT on January 1, will remain critical to price volatility and investor sentiment.