CEOs Forecast 62% Chance of US Recession in Six Months Amid Tariff Uncertainty

A recent survey has shed light on the growing pessimism among American business leaders regarding the near-term economic prospects of the United States. The survey, which polled over 300 CEOs in April, found that a significant majority—62%—anticipate some form of economic recession within the next six months. This figure represents a notable increase from the 48% who held this view in March, indicating a rapid shift in sentiment within the corporate sector.

The escalating concerns about an economic downturn come amidst a backdrop of heightened market volatility and consumer anxiety. The unpredictable tariff policies implemented by the U.S. administration have been cited as a major contributing factor to this growing unease. These policies have not only disrupted supply chains but have also created an atmosphere of uncertainty that is weighing heavily on business confidence.

The survey results also highlight the specific impact of tariffs on business operations. Approximately three-quarters of the CEOs surveyed believe that tariffs will have a detrimental effect on their businesses by 2025. This long-term perspective underscores the deep-seated concerns about the sustainability of current economic policies and their potential to stifle growth and innovation.

Moreover, the survey revealed a strong opposition to the proposed tariffs among business leaders. Around two-thirds of the respondents expressed their disapproval of the tariff measures, many of which are currently on hold. This widespread dissent among CEOs reflects a broader sentiment of frustration and concern about the direction of economic policy and its potential consequences for the U.S. economy.

The findings of this survey serve as a stark reminder of the challenges facing the U.S. economy in the coming months. As business leaders brace for a potential recession, the need for stable and predictable economic policies has never been more pressing. The survey results underscore the importance of addressing the underlying issues that are fueling market volatility and consumer anxiety, and of fostering an environment that supports long-term economic growth and stability.