Century Aluminum Surges 9.7% in Intraday Trading—What's Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Century Aluminum (CENX) surges 9.74% to $22.30, hitting a 52-week high of $22.54
• Analysts raise average price target to $22.50, implying 3.22% upside
• Trade policy shifts and sector positioning drive volatile volume of 2.4 million shares

Century Aluminum’s stock is electrifying traders after a dramatic 9.74% intraday rally, fueled by a mix of analyst optimism, trade policy speculation, and technical momentum. The stock’s surge to $22.30—a 14.15% discount to its 52-week high—has positioned it at a critical juncture between overbought conditions and institutional positioning. With volume spiking to 4.67% of its float, the move reflects a confluence of short-term catalysts and sector-wide dynamics.

Bullish Momentum Resumes on Analyst Upgrades and Trade Policy Hints
The 9.74% surge in Century Aluminum’s stock is driven by a combination of analyst upgrades and sector-specific trade developments. Wall Street analysts have raised the average target price to $22.50, signaling a 3.22% upside from the current level. This follows a broader shift in U.S.-Canada trade negotiations, where Canada’s potential revision of 25% retaliatory tariffs on aluminum and steel products has lifted sector sentiment. Additionally, the stock’s 3.22% outperformance against its 52-week low of $11.40 suggests a short-term reversal in investor confidence, amplified by technical indicators like the MACD histogram turning positive and RSI approaching overbought territory.

Aluminum Sector Gains as U.S.-Canada Trade Dynamics Evolve
The aluminum sector is responding to Canada’s announced review of its 25% tariffs on U.S. aluminum and steel products, a move contingent on trade negotiations. This policy shift has indirectly benefited Century Aluminum, as reduced trade friction could stabilize pricing and demand. While CENX’s intraday high of $22.54 lags its 52-week peak by 14.15%, the sector-wide tailwinds—evidenced by Associated Capital’s 0.62% rise—suggest a broader re-rating of aluminum producers amid improved trade prospects.

Strategic Options and ETF Plays for CENX's Volatile Move
• 200-day MA: $18.65 (below price), RSI: 69.27 (overbought), MACD: 0.616 (bullish)
• Bollinger Bands: $16.44–$21.03 (price near upper band), 30D support: $18.81–$18.89

CENTURY ALUMINUM’S rally has created a high-risk, high-reward setup. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high of $25.39 and the 21.44% projected 3-month target of $21.44. Short-term traders should focus on options with high leverage and moderate delta.

CENX20250815C22 (Call, $22 strike, Aug 15 exp):
• IV: 71.34%, Leverage: 11.87%, Delta: 0.574, Theta: -0.0507, Gamma: 0.0922, Turnover: $18,106
• Overbought IV suggests volatility premium, high gamma ensures sensitivity to price moves
• If CENX closes above $22.54, this call could see 108.89% payoff (5% upside target: $23.41 → $1.41 profit)

CENX20250919C21 (Call, $21 strike, Sep 19 exp):
• IV: 62.82%, Leverage: 7.39%, Delta: 0.653, Theta: -0.0258, Gamma: 0.0644, Turnover: $239,265
• High liquidity and moderate IV, ideal for holding through earnings
• 5% upside (to $23.41) yields $2.41 profit (83.03% payoff)

Aggressive bulls should prioritize CENX20250815C22 for short-term gamma exposure, while CENX20250919C21 offers a safer play into mid-September.

Backtest Century Aluminum Stock Performance
The 10% intraday surge in CENX has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that the 3-day win rate is 52.68%, the 10-day win rate is 54.18%, and the 30-day win rate is 57.53%, indicating that CENX tends to experience positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return observed was 8.73% over 30 days, suggesting that there is potential for significant price appreciation following the intraday surge.

Take Immediate Action as CENX Eyes $25.39 52-Week High
Century Aluminum’s 9.74% rally has positioned it at a pivotal technical and fundamental crossroads. With the 52-week high of $25.39 in sight and sector-wide trade tailwinds, investors should focus on short-term options like CENX20250815C22 for leveraged exposure. The stock’s 3.22% outperformance against its 52-week low and the sector leader Associated Capital’s 0.62% rise underscore the urgency to act. Watch for a breakout above $22.54 to confirm the bullish case, and consider closing short positions below $18.79 to mitigate risk.