Central Puerto (CEPU) Surges 12% on Spin-Off Approval: A Strategic Reorganization Ignites Investor Optimism

Summary
• Central Puerto (CEPU) surges 12.1% intraday to $9.45, breaking above its 52-week high of $16.60.
• The stock trades at a dynamic P/E of 29.78, outperforming its sector peers.
• A landmark spin-off with ECOGAS Inversiones S.A. receives regulatory approval, set to reshape the company’s capital structure.

Central Puerto’s dramatic 12.1% intraday rally on October 13, 2025, reflects investor enthusiasm for its strategic reorganization with ECOGAS. The stock’s surge to $9.45—a 12.1% gain from its previous close of $8.43—highlights the market’s confidence in the spin-off’s potential to unlock value. With the reorganization effective October 1, 2025, shareholders will receive new ECOGAS Class D shares, signaling a pivotal shift in the company’s ownership and operational focus.

Spin-Off Authorization Catalyzes CEPU’s Sharp Rally
Central Puerto’s 12.1% intraday surge is directly tied to the National Securities Commission’s (CNV) approval of its spin-off-merger with ECOGAS Inversiones S.A. This reorganization, finalized on September 10, 2025, involves transferring $305 million in cash, stakes in Energía Sudamericana S.A., and Distribuidora de Gas del Centro S.A. to ECOGAS. Shareholders will receive new Class D ECOGAS shares at a 1:18.6694 exchange ratio, fundamentally altering the company’s capital structure. The move is perceived as a strategic consolidation of assets, enhancing operational clarity and shareholder value. The regulatory green light has alleviated uncertainty, triggering a buying frenzy as investors anticipate the post-reorganization capitalization of $250 million for ECOGAS.

Electric Utilities Sector Mixed as CEPU Outperforms
While the electric utilities sector remains under pressure due to rising infrastructure costs and regulatory headwinds, Central Puerto’s spin-off has positioned it as a standout performer. NextEra Energy (NEE), the sector leader, saw a modest 1.25% intraday gain, underscoring the disparity in market sentiment. CEPU’s reorganization, however, offers a unique value proposition by streamlining operations and focusing on core energy assets, contrasting with broader sector challenges like AI-driven electricity demand and grid strain.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on CEPU’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $11.81 (below current price of $9.45)
• RSI: 46.9 (neutral)
• MACD: -0.42 (bearish) vs. Signal Line -0.56
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $9.14, Middle $8.26, Lower $7.38
• Support/Resistance: 30D $8.40–8.46, 200D $11.79–11.95

CEPU’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias despite a long-term bearish trend. Key levels to watch include the 30-day support at $8.40 and the 200-day resistance at $11.81. The stock’s 12.1% intraday surge has pushed it near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating overbought conditions. However, the spin-off’s execution on October 1 could provide a catalyst for a sustained rally. The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) holds 2.96% in CEPU, offering indirect exposure to the stock’s volatility.

Top Options Contracts:
• CEPU20251017C10 (Call, $10 strike, Oct 17 expiration):
- IV: 29.1% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 1882.7% (extreme)
- Delta: 0.039 (low)
- Theta: -0.0023 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.264 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 0
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.225 per contract
- Why it stands out: High leverage ratio amplifies gains if CEPU breaks above $10, though low delta limits directional sensitivity.

• CEPU20251121C10 (Call, $10 strike, Nov 21 expiration):
- IV: 70.23% (elevated)
- Leverage Ratio: 14.94% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.4397 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.0096 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.1795 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 2,297 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.4725 per contract
- Why it stands out: High turnover and moderate delta make it ideal for capitalizing on CEPU’s post-spin-off momentum. Elevated IV reflects market anticipation of volatility.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider CEPU20251121C10 as a leveraged play if CEPU sustains above $9.14 (upper Bollinger Band). Cautious investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $11.81 for a potential reversal signal.

Backtest Central Puerto Stock Performance
The backtest has been completed successfully. You can review the detailed results, including the key metrics and trade-by-trade equity curve, in the interactive module below.Key figures (2022-01-01 → 2025-10-13, close price basis):• Total return: 29.66% • Annualized return: 8.02% • Max drawdown: 12.92% • Sharpe ratio: 0.53 Note on assumptions: 1. “Hold for 1 day” was implemented via the `max_hold_days = 1` parameter. 2. No stop-loss or take-profit limits were set because you did not specify them. 3. All trades were executed at the closing price of the trigger day and sold at the next session’s close.Feel free to explore the interactive panel for trade logs, equity curve and distribution charts.

CEPU’s Spin-Off Execution Will Define Its Trajectory—Act Now
Central Puerto’s 12.1% intraday surge underscores the market’s optimism around its spin-off with ECOGAS, but the stock’s long-term bearish trend and overbought RSI (46.9) suggest caution. The reorganization’s execution on October 1 will be critical—successful asset transfers and shareholder distribution could validate the rally, while delays may trigger profit-taking. Investors should prioritize CEPU20251121C10 for leveraged exposure to the post-spin-off momentum. Watch for a breakdown below $8.40 (30-day support) or a breakout above $11.81 (200-day MA) to gauge the move’s sustainability. Meanwhile, NextEra Energy’s 1.25% gain highlights the sector’s mixed performance, but CEPU’s unique reorganization offers a distinct edge. Act now: Position for the October 1 event and monitor the 10.00 psychological level as a key inflection point.