Central Puerto (CEPU) Surges 11.15% on Spin-Off Approval – Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Central Puerto (CEPU) gaps up 11.15% to $15.805, hitting an intraday high of $15.88
• Spin-off with ECOGAS Inversiones S.A. approved by CNV, effective October 1, 2025
• ECOGAS to receive $305M cash, shares in energy subsidiaries, and Class A shares
• Analysts remain divided, with Weiss Ratings retaining a 'Sell' but Wall Street Zen upgrading to 'Buy'

Central Puerto’s dramatic intraday surge has ignited market speculation, driven by the finalized spin-off with ECOGAS and regulatory clarity. The stock’s 11.15% jump reflects investor optimism over the reorganization’s potential to unlock value, despite lingering sector volatility. With the 52-week high at $16.60 still out of reach, traders are weighing technical indicators and options strategies to capitalize on the momentum.

Spin-Off Approval Ignites Investor Optimism
Central Puerto’s 11.15% intraday rally stems from the finalized spin-off-merger with ECOGAS Inversiones S.A., approved by Argentina’s National Securities Commission (CNV) on September 10, 2025. The reorganization, effective October 1, 2025, transfers $305 million in cash, shares in energy subsidiaries, and 59.99 million ECOGAS Class A shares to ECOGAS. This strategic separation aims to streamline Central Puerto’s focus on core power generation while creating a distinct entity for ECOGAS’s gas and energy assets. The move has alleviated regulatory uncertainty and positioned the company for improved capital allocation, sparking immediate investor enthusiasm.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on CEPU’s Volatility and Technical Setup
• MACD: 1.1368 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.4924, Histogram: 0.6444 (positive momentum)
• RSI: 81.64 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: Upper $14.12, Middle $9.87, Lower $5.62
• 200D MA: $11.51 (price above), 30D MA: $9.36 (price above)
• Support/Resistance: 30D: $8.86–$8.99, 200D: $11.83–$11.97

Central Puerto’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend amid a long-term bearish bias. The stock is trading near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential for a pullback to the middle band ($9.87) or a breakout above $14.12. The MACD histogram’s positive divergence and RSI overbought condition support a cautious bullish stance. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA ($11.51) as a critical resistance level.

Top Options Picks:
1. CEPU20251121C15
• Code: CEPU20251121C15
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $15
• Expiration: 2025-11-21
• IV: 61.04% (moderate volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 11.60% (high)
• Delta: 0.6597 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0237 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1546 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: 3,126 (high liquidity)
• Price Change Ratio: 189.36% (strong momentum)
Why it stands out: This call option offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a potential breakout above $15. The high gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings, while the moderate theta balances time decay. Projected payoff at 5% upside (to $16.60) yields a $1.60 profit per contract.

2. CEPU20260116C15
• Code: CEPU20260116C15
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $15
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 40.90% (reasonable volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 9.86% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.6424 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0080 (low time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1240 (moderate sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: 1,404 (adequate liquidity)
• Price Change Ratio: 10.34% (positive trend)
Why it stands out: This longer-dated call provides a buffer for volatility while maintaining moderate leverage. The low theta reduces decay risk, making it suitable for a mid-term hold. Projected payoff at 5% upside (to $16.60) yields a $1.60 profit per contract.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls should prioritize CEPU20251121C15 for a short-term breakout play, while CEPU20260116C15 offers a safer, mid-term bet. Watch for a break above $15.88 to confirm bullish momentum.

Backtest Central Puerto Stock Performance
Below is the event-study back-test of Central Puerto (CEPU.N) following any day that closed at least 11 % higher than the previous close, over the period 1 Jan 2022 – 31 Oct 2025. Key modelling choices (auto-completed):• Surge definition: day-on-day close ≥ +11 %. • Event window analysed: 30 trading days after each surge (standard setting when no preference stated). • Price series: daily close. • Risk controls: none (pure event impact requested).High-level findings• Only 5 such surges occurred in the sample, so statistical power is limited. • Median cumulative excess return vs. the benchmark is small and not statistically significant at any horizon in the 30-day window. • The best average point is around day 26 (≈ +12.7 %), but the result lacks statistical significance due to the small event count.For an interactive view of all curves and tables, open the module pane on the right.Feel free to let me know if you’d like to adjust the event threshold, include stop-loss / take-profit rules, or extend the look-ahead window.

Position for a Breakout or Pullback – CEPU’s Spin-Off Catalyzes Short-Term Optimism
Central Puerto’s spin-off with ECOGAS has injected clarity and momentum into its stock, driving an 11.15% intraday surge. While the long-term bearish bias persists due to the 200-day MA resistance and sector headwinds, the short-term technicals favor a breakout above $15.88. Traders should focus on CEPU20251121C15 for immediate gains and monitor the 200-day MA ($11.51) as a key inflection point. Meanwhile, sector leader Nextera Energy (NEE), which fell -0.71% today, highlights the sector’s mixed performance, but CEPU’s reorganization-driven rally positions it as a standout play. Act now: Buy CEPU20251121C15 if $15.88 holds, or short-term traders can target a pullback to $9.87 for a mean reversion trade.