Central Banks to Embrace Bitcoin as 2030 Reserve Asset Amid Dollar Shift

Deutsche Bank has forecasted that Bitcoin could join gold as a recognized reserve asset on central bank balance sheets by 2030, marking a significant shift in how monetary authorities view digital assets. This prediction, outlined in a September 2025 report, positions Bitcoin as a complementary hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, alongside gold, while the U.S. dollar remains the dominant reserve currency. The bank emphasized that Bitcoin’s maturing market profile, characterized by declining volatility and growing institutional adoption, supports this trajectory.

The analysis highlights Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility hitting historic lows in August 2025, even as prices surpassed $123,500, suggesting a transition from speculative trading to a more stable asset class. Institutional demand has surged, with corporate Bitcoin acquisitions totaling 463,685 BTC through September 22, nearly tripling the 164,250 BTC mined in 2025. This supply-demand imbalance has intensified competition for the scarce asset, particularly as central banks explore diversification strategies amid concerns over dollar dominance and geopolitical fragmentation.

Deutsche Bank’s projection aligns with global regulatory advancements, including the EU’s MiCA framework and evolving U.S. rules, which aim to provide clarity for crypto markets. The bank noted that regulatory frameworks in major jurisdictions are critical for legitimizing Bitcoin as a reserve asset, alongside infrastructure improvements in custody solutions and accounting standards. Central banks in the U.S., Brazil, Russia, and Switzerland have already initiated strategic Bitcoin reserve programs, reflecting a broader trend toward integrating digital assets into official portfolios.

The report draws parallels between Bitcoin’s adoption path and gold’s historical journey, emphasizing their shared characteristics of scarcity and low correlation with traditional assets. While gold maintains a stronger link to equities and bonds, Bitcoin’s independence from conventional monetary systems makes it an attractive diversification tool. Deutsche Bank cited data showing Bitcoin’s minimal correlation with the S&P 500 (12% since 2020) and its negative correlation with government bonds during certain periods, contrasting with gold’s 14% equity correlation.

Challenges remain, however. The bank acknowledged that regulatory clarity, price stability, and robust custody infrastructure are prerequisites for Bitcoin’s inclusion in reserves. Volatility reduction, secure custody solutions, and alignment with anti-money laundering (AML) frameworks are essential to mitigate risks. Additionally, geopolitical factors, such as China’s reduced U.S. Treasury holdings in 2024 and the dollar’s 57% share of global reserves, underscore the need for central banks to balance innovation with monetary sovereignty.

The potential inclusion of Bitcoin in official reserves could reshape institutional investment strategies. Deutsche Bank projected that Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation would strengthen as adoption matures, though it stressed that neither asset would replace the dollar. For investors, the report signals a growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate pillar of the financial system, with central banks and corporations increasingly prioritizing its strategic value.

Source: [1] Deutsche Bank Research, "Bitcoin to Join Gold on Central Bank Reserves by 2030" (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/22/bitcoin-to-join-gold-on-central-bank-reserve-balance-sheets-by-2030-deutsche-bank) [2] Deutsche Bank Research, "Bitcoin’s Institutional Tsunami" (https://www.btcc.com/en-US/square/ThecoinrepublicEN/998470) [3] Deutsche Bank Research, "Bitcoin in Central Bank Reserves by 2030" (https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/09/22/deutsche-bank-sees-bitcoin-in-central-bank-reserves-by-2030/)