Cencora Stock Plunges 3.09% After Failed $310 Breakout Amid Technical Weakness

Cencora (COR) declined 3.09% to close at $298.82 in the latest session, with trading volume of 1.94 million shares. This significant drop occurred after a failed breakout attempt at the $310 resistance level earlier in the week, setting the context for a comprehensive technical evaluation of the stock's trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern on September 25th as the session high ($310) rejected near the critical resistance zone while closing near session lows ($289.81 low, $298.82 close). This follows a shooting star candle on September 24th (high $309.64, close $308.36), confirming selling pressure at the $310 psychological barrier. Key support emerges at $288-290, a region tested repeatedly in August-September with successful bounces. Resistance is solidified at $310, which has capped advances three times in the past month.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($288.50) and 100-day moving average ($285.75) provided dynamic support during August corrections. While the price trades above these levels ($298.82 close), the 50-day has flattened after the recent pullback. The 200-day moving average ($275.40) maintains an upward slope, underpinning the long-term bullish structure. However, the diminishing slope of shorter-term averages may signal consolidation, with sustained trading below $290 risking a bearish MA crossover.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) has entered negative territory with a bearish crossover confirmed on September 22nd, signaling building downward momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator (9,3,3) shows K-line (19) and D-line (28) diving into oversold territory beneath 30. While KDJ suggests potential oversold exhaustion, the absence of bullish divergence in MACD warrants caution. This disagreement implies weak near-term recovery prospects despite oversold readings.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) contracted sharply before the recent breakdown, reflecting declining volatility ahead of the directional move. Price has now breached the lower band ($293.50), typically signaling oversold conditions. However, the expansion following this violation suggests accelerating downside momentum rather than immediate mean reversion. A close back inside the bands is required to indicate stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakdown on September 25th occurred on 1.94 million shares – 24% above the 30-day average volume – confirming bearish conviction. This distribution pattern contrasts with the prior two-day rally (Sep 23-24), where volume diminished as prices approached $310. Such divergence weakens the rally's sustainability argument while validating resistance strength. High-volume rejection at $310 establishes this as a supply zone.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI at 36 approaches oversold territory but lacks bullish divergence. Its decline from overbought (>70) on September 19th to current levels without intermediate consolidation suggests unresolved downside pressure. Historically, meaningful reversals occurred when RSI reached 30-32 (as in May and August), making current readings premature for calling a bottom. RSI warns of potential further weakness before stabilization.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the rally from the September 2024 low ($225.08) to the September 2025 high ($310) reveals critical thresholds. The 23.6% retracement ($293.70) was breached decisively in the latest session. Next support aligns at the 38.2% level ($281.20), coinciding with the August consolidation base and 100-day MA. Resistance now forms at the 23.6% level ($293.70), with a recovery above this needed to invalidate the breakdown.
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Notable confluence appears at the $280-285 support zone, where the 38.2% Fibonacci level, 100-day MA, and August swing lows converge. Bearish consensus dominates across indicators following the failed $310 breakout, though oversold KDJ readings diverge from MACD's bearish momentum signal. Volume confirms resistance strength while the breakdown below Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci 23.6% reinforces downside bias. The lack of RSI divergence suggests capitulation may be required before a durable low forms. Traders should monitor the $290-$295 reaction for evidence of accumulation or continuation, with the $280-$285 confluence representing the next major technical floor.