Cencora's Insider Sale: Panic or Opportunity in a Volatile Market?

The healthcare sector has been a battleground for investors this year, and Cencora (COR.US) is at the center of a critical crossroads. A recent Form 144 filing by director Robert P. Mauch, disclosing plans to sell 4,969 shares (≈$1.45 million), has sent ripples through the market. But here’s the truth: this isn’t a red flag—it’s a buying signal for those who dare to think long-term.

Breaking Down the Form 144 Filing

The director’s sale of 4,969 shares on May 19, 2025, is part of a larger pattern. Over the past six months, Mauch has offloaded 14,909 shares worth $4.28 million, all under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted in November 2024. Crucially, these sales were pre-planned and not based on non-public information. While insider selling often spooks investors, this structured approach suggests capital allocation, not fear, is at play.

The shares being sold stem from restricted stock vesting (2023) and option exercises (2019). This isn’t a sudden dump—it’s part of a compensation payout. Investors should ask: Is a director’s routine wealth diversification enough to justify panic?

Market Volatility: Context is Key

Let’s look at the numbers. Cencora’s stock has been in a sideways battle since late 2024, oscillating between $220 and $305. The recent dip to $278.61 in April was followed by a rebound to $293.88 by May 20—a 5.5% swing in 20 days.

The beta of 0.6 confirms Cencora’s muted volatility versus the broader market. Even with its ATR (Average True Range) hovering around $3.95 over 20 days, the stock isn’t wildly unstable. The recent selloff to $278.61 found support at key levels, suggesting institutional buyers are standing firm.

Institutional Ownership: The Real Story

While headlines focus on insider sales, institutional ownership has surged. As of Q4 2024, institutions held 97.5% of the float—a dominant stake. Major funds like Strategic Wealth Partners (+34%) and Gateway Investment Advisers (+103.8%) are doubling down. Even as Mauch sells, new entrants like Fermata Advisors are buying.

This isn’t a sector in decline—it’s one where big money is consolidating positions. The $1.45 million sale by Mauch is a drop in the bucket compared to the $7.7 million added by Strategic Wealth Partners alone. Follow the institutions—they’re not getting spooked.

Technical Analysis: A Bullish Setup

The charts tell a story of resilience. Cencora’s 50-day moving average ($285) has held firm, and the RSI (14) remains in neutral territory (50-60). The May 7 spike to $304.58 highlights strong buying momentum, while the recent dip to $278.61 tested support—and failed.

A break above $300 could trigger a surge to $320, with $275 as the next critical support. This isn’t a dying stock—it’s a range-bound play with upside potential.

Sentiment and Fundamentals: Why This Matters

Cencora’s acquisition of Retina Consultants of America in early 2025 expanded its footprint in ophthalmology, a high-margin niche. The company’s Q1 earnings beat estimates, with revenue up 8% YoY. While not a rocket, this steady growth is exactly what institutional buyers crave in a choppy market.

The healthcare sector itself is undervalued. With the S&P 500 Healthcare Index trading at a 15% discount to its 5-year average P/E, Cencora’s 18x P/E is a steal.

The Bottom Line: Buy the Dip

The director’s Form 144 filing is not a sell signal—it’s a buying opportunity. Institutions are accumulating, the stock is range-bound but resilient, and the fundamentals are solid.

Here’s your edge:
- Buy now at $293.88—$285 is your stop.
- Hold for 6–12 months; the $320 level is within reach.
- Forget the noise: This isn’t about insider selling—it’s about a company primed to outperform when the sector turns.

Cencora isn’t a cautionary tale—it’s a gold mine for those who dare to look past the headlines.

Action now, or regret later.