Celsius Q4: A Beat, But Did the Market Already Expect It?

The numbers were clear. For the fourth quarter, Celsius Holdings posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.26 on revenue of $722 million. That beat the Wall Street consensus of $0.19 per share and $639 million in sales by a wide margin. The market's immediate reaction was a surge of more than 16% in pre-market trade. On the surface, this looks like a classic "beat and raise" scenario.

But the setup reveals a more nuanced dynamic. The company's prior quarter saw it beat on EPS by $0.14, yet the stock dropped 7.86% the following day. That was a textbook "sell the news" event, where expectations were already high. The key insight is that the market was positioned for a miss. The sheer size of this quarter's beat-36.8% on EPS-suggests the consensus was far too low. When a company consistently beats by a wide margin, it often means the whisper number was even lower than the official estimate. The stock's strong pre-market pop confirms the positive surprise was real, but it also highlights how much pressure had been built into the shares from the prior disappointment.

The Growth Engine: Alani Nu's Ascent and Rockstar's Struggle

The top-line beat was powered by a starkly different story across the portfolio. The headline growth came from Alani Nu, which is rapidly integrating into the PepsiCo distribution system. Its retail sales surged 101% year over year for the full year, a key driver behind the company's record annual revenue of $2.5 billion. This explosive growth is the bright spot, showing the power of the new distribution channel and strong consumer adoption.

Yet the picture is far from uniform. The portfolio volatility is on full display. While Alani Nu soared, Rockstar Energy retail sales decreased 11% year over year for the full year, a significant slump that weighed on the broader category. This divergence highlights the inherent risk in a multi-brand strategy, where one brand's strength can mask another's weakness.

The flagship Celsius brand also showed signs of competitive pressure. Its revenue declined approximately 8% in the fourth quarter alone, indicating it is facing headwinds in the crowded market. This sets up a clear expectation gap for 2026: the beat was driven by a single high-flying brand, while the core brand and a major portfolio piece are under pressure.

The bottom line is that the Q4 beat was not a story of broad-based health. It was a tale of two brands: one rocketing higher and one struggling. For the stock's momentum to be sustainable, investors need to see the growth engine shift from Alani Nu's surge to a more balanced expansion across the entire portfolio. The current setup is fragile, dependent on a single brand's outperformance.

The Full-Year Reset: Guidance and the 20% Share Milestone

The full-year results paint a picture of explosive scale. Celsius delivered record annual revenue of $2.5 billion, a staggering 86% increase from FY2024. This growth was powered by the integration of Alani Nu and Rockstar, with Alani Nu alone contributing over $1 billion in revenue for the year. The company also reached a significant market position, with CEO John Fieldly noting it reached an approximate 20% dollar share of the U.S. energy drink category in Q4 2025.

Management's forward-looking statement is the key takeaway. Fieldly declared the company is "entering 2026 with positive momentum". In context, this is a clear guidance reset. After a year of massive acquisition-driven growth and a volatile Q4, this phrase sets a new baseline for expectations. It signals that the company is moving past the integration phase and into a period of sustained execution, with the 20% share target providing a tangible metric for success.

The market's reaction confirms this reset is priced in. The stock's 16% surge in early trading followed the full-year beat, showing investors are rewarding the scale and market share achievement. The expectation gap has closed. The stock is now looking ahead, and the bar for 2026 has been raised. Future beats will need to show organic growth beyond the Alani Nu surge and a stabilization of the core Celsius and Rockstar brands, or the momentum narrative may struggle to hold.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch Next

The market has already priced in a beat. Now, the focus shifts to what will validate or undermine the new "positive momentum" narrative. The near-term catalysts are clear, and they will test whether the expectation gap has truly closed.

First, the company must show that the growth engine is accelerating, not just sustained. The explosive Alani Nu brand sales powered the full-year beat, but the core Celsius brand declined in Q4. Investors need to see confirmation in the first-quarter results that Alani Nu's momentum is continuing and that the decline in Rockstar Energy is stabilizing. Any stumble in these key brands would quickly reset expectations downward.

Second, management's forward guidance is critical. The CEO's statement that Celsius is "entering 2026 with positive momentum" is a qualitative reset. It needs to be backed by concrete numbers. The next earnings call will be the first real test of this narrative. If management provides a Q2 outlook that merely matches the recent beat, the stock may struggle. To justify the optimism, they must point to a clear path for organic growth beyond the Alani Nu surge and a plan to turn around the lagging brands.

Finally, watch for insider sentiment. While the company's scale and market share are impressive, the actions of executives can signal their confidence. Over the past six months, there have been three sales and two purchases by insiders. Notably, the CFO and the Chief Supply Chain Officer both sold shares recently. While these could be routine diversification moves, a pattern of selling from key operational leaders would be a red flag, suggesting they see limited upside or are taking profits after the stock's pop. Conversely, more buying from executives would reinforce the bullish internal view.

The bottom line is that the stock's recent surge reflects a reset in expectations. For this optimism to be justified, the company must deliver on three fronts: accelerating growth from its star brand, a credible plan to stabilize the rest of the portfolio, and guidance that supports the new narrative. Any failure on these fronts could trigger another expectation gap, this time in the opposite direction.