Celsius Holdings Plummets 5.7% on Earnings Miss and Distribution Shifts: What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Celsius Holdings (CELH) slumps 5.7% to $40.35, erasing $2.44 from its value in under two hours.
• Q3 net loss of $61M widens as distributor termination costs and SGA expenses surge.
• PepsiCo-backed distribution shifts for Alani Nu create GAAP accounting headwinds.
• Sector leader Monster Beverage (MNST) rallies 1.65%, highlighting divergent performance.
Celsius Holdings’ stock is in freefall after a volatile earnings report revealed a $61M net loss and $246.7M in distributor termination costs. The selloff accelerated as investors digested the impact of shifting distribution partnerships and GAAP accounting challenges. With the stock trading near its intraday low of $40.32, the market is now weighing whether this is a short-term correction or a deeper structural issue.

Earnings Miss and Distribution Shifts Trigger Sharp Selloff
Celsius Holdings’ 5.7% intraday drop stems from a combination of GAAP accounting headwinds and strategic distribution shifts. The company’s Q3 net loss of $61M—driven by $246.7M in distributor termination costs and $205.6M in SGA expenses—far outpaced adjusted EBITDA of $205.6M. While revenue surged 173% to $725.1M, the GAAP net loss masked underlying adjusted profitability. The distribution transition of Alani Nu to PepsiCo’s system, though strategically sound, created a timing mismatch: termination costs hit the income statement immediately, while funding from PepsiCo is amortized over time. This accounting asymmetry amplified short-term pain, triggering a sell-off as investors recalibrated expectations.

Soft Drinks Sector Mixed as Monster Beverage Gains Momentum
The broader soft drinks sector showed mixed signals, with Monster Beverage (MNST) rising 1.65% as Celsius tumbled. While Celsius’ distribution shifts reflect industry-wide consolidation trends, Monster’s gains highlight divergent performance. Celsius’ focus on premium functional beverages aligns with sector trends, but its GAAP accounting challenges and high SGA expenses create near-term friction. Monster’s premiumization strategy and lower operational leverage appear to resonate more with investors, underscoring Celsius’ need to demonstrate sustainable profitability post-acquisition integration.

Bearish Options and RSI Oversold Levels Signal Short-Term Volatility
• RSI: 16.97 (oversold)
• MACD: -4.50 (bearish divergence)
• 200D MA: $43.82 (price below key support)
• Bollinger Bands: $37.73–$72.86 (current price near lower band)
Celsius’ technicals suggest a potential rebound from oversold levels, but near-term volatility remains high. Key support at $38.50 (200D MA) and resistance at $42.50 (Q3 high) define the trading range. For aggressive short-term bets, consider the following options:

• CELH20251121P38: Put option with 5.7% IV, 61.15% implied volatility ratio, delta -0.189, theta -0.012, gamma 0.0936, turnover 902. This contract offers leverage (130.16%) and high gamma, making it responsive to price swings. A 5% downside to $38.33 would yield a $0.02 profit (max payoff: $0.67).
• CELH20251121P38.5: Put option with 56.45% IV, delta -0.226, theta -0.0017, gamma 0.1128, turnover 799. Moderate leverage (112.08%) and high gamma position it for volatility. A 5% move to $38.33 would generate $0.02 profit (max payoff: $0.17).
Aggressive bulls may consider CELH20251121C40 into a bounce above $42.50, while bears should watch for a breakdown below $38.50.

Backtest Celsius Holdings Stock Performance
Key findings1. Signal definition • Because intraday tick data were not readily available via the current data interface, the -6 % “intraday plunge” was approximated with a -6 % (or worse) close-to-close daily drop. • 50 such trading days were found between 1 Jan 2022 and 17 Nov 2025.2. Post-event performance (vs. simply holding the stock) • Average cumulative return after 30 trading days: +4.95 % (benchmark buy-and-hold: +6.45 %). • The event return never achieved statistical significance at any horizon ≤ 30 days. • Win-rate (proportion of events with a positive return) fluctuated around 50 %, offering no material edge.3. Practical implication • For CELH, buying the stock immediately after a daily -6 % plunge has not out-performed a passive position during the past four years.Parameter choices that were filled in automatically• price_type = close (The event engine defaults to closing prices.) • analysis window = 30 trading days (Default setting of the event back-test engine.) • benchmark = CELH close-to-close return series.You can explore all interactive charts and tables in the module below.

Bullish Catalysts Loom as Short-Term Volatility Persists
Celsius’ selloff reflects near-term GAAP accounting challenges and distribution transition costs, but underlying revenue growth (173% YoY) and market share gains (20.8% U.S. RTD energy) suggest long-term potential. The stock’s RSI at 16.97 indicates oversold conditions, but a sustained rebound depends on clearing $42.50 resistance. Sector leader Monster Beverage’s 1.65% gain highlights divergent momentum, but Celsius’ strategic partnerships and product innovation could drive a recovery. Watch for a breakdown below $38.50 or a breakout above $42.50 to define the next phase. Investors should prioritize short-term options like CELH20251121P38 for volatility plays while monitoring Q4 guidance for clarity.