Celsius Holdings 0.22% Decline and 465th-Ranked $280M Volume Precede Key Earnings Report

Market Snapshot

Celsius Holdings (CELH) closed on February 25, 2026, with a 0.22% decline, reflecting modest weakness despite a trading volume of $280 million, which ranked 465th in the market. The stock’s performance aligns with broader volatility as the company prepares to release Q4 2025 earnings on February 26, a key event likely to shape near-term momentum.

Key Drivers

The primary catalyst for Celsius Holdings’ recent price movement is the anticipation of its Q4 2025 earnings report, scheduled for February 26. Analysts expect revenue of $638.68 million to $640.83 million, representing a 91.2% year-on-year growth, driven by strong demand for its functional energy drinks. Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at $0.19, a 35.7% increase compared to the same quarter in 2024. However, this optimism is tempered by mixed historical performance: in Q3 2025, the company exceeded revenue estimates by 1.82% but reported a $0.27 loss per share, missing expectations by 237%. The stock fell 24.8% post-earnings, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to earnings surprises.

Valuation discrepancies further complicate the outlook. While 19 analysts set an average 12-month price target of $63.03 (24.26% above the current price of $50.72), GuruFocus estimates a significantly higher GF Value of $129.27, implying a 154.87% upside. This divergence underscores divergent views on the company’s growth potential and efficiency in translating revenue gains into profit. Additionally, the stock trades 33.8% below its estimated fair value, according to some analyses, suggesting undervaluation despite recent declines.

Strategic developments, such as board appointments from PepsiCo, are cited as potential governance enhancements. However, these structural changes have yet to translate into consistent financial performance. Over the past two years, Celsius has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time but has missed EPS expectations in the same period, reflecting operational challenges in maintaining profitability. Analysts note that while the company’s product diversification—spanning ready-to-drink, powder, and hydration products—supports long-term growth, near-term margins remain under pressure.

Sector comparisons add nuance to the analysis. Peers like Vita Coco and Boston Beer reported mixed Q4 results, with Vita Coco trading down 8.4% after a 6.2% revenue beat and Boston Beer’s 4.1% revenue decline aligning with expectations. Celsius, meanwhile, has lagged behind sector averages, with its share price down 6.5% over the past month despite positive sentiment in the beverages segment. This disconnect suggests that while broader market conditions are favorable, Celsius faces unique challenges in meeting Wall Street’s expectations.

Brokerage recommendations remain cautiously optimistic. With an average rating of 2.0 on a 1-to-5 scale (indicating “Outperform”), analysts acknowledge the company’s growth trajectory but emphasize risks. Revisions to earnings estimates over the past 90 days reveal a pattern of downward adjustments for 2025 (from $0.79 to $0.69 per share) and upward adjustments for 2026 (from $1.38 to $1.41 per share), reflecting cautious optimism about future recovery.

In summary, Celsius Holdings’ stock price reflects a tug-of-war between strong revenue growth, structural improvements, and persistent profitability concerns. The upcoming earnings report will be critical in determining whether the market perceives the company as a turnaround success or a high-risk bet on long-term potential.