CELOUSDT Market Overview for 2025-10-07

• Price declined from 0.4415 to 0.4057 on 2025-10-07, ending near support levels.
• High volatility observed after 16:00 ET, with volume increasing significantly.
• RSI oversold conditions emerged near 0.4000, suggesting possible short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the late ET session, indicating heightened volatility.
• Volume and turnover aligned with price action, showing no major divergence.

Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) opened at 0.4383 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.4057 on 2025-10-07 at the same time, hitting a high of 0.4415 and a low of 0.4004. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 154,833,628.3, with a notional turnover of approximately $62,125,476. The price action reflects a bearish bias, particularly after midday ET, with a sharp decline followed by moderate consolidation near key support.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure for the 24-hour period features a long bearish shadow from the high of 0.4415 down to 0.4004. A key support level emerged near 0.4030–0.4040, where price found temporary consolidation. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern at the high (0.4413–0.4395), a long-legged doji at 0.4057, and a potential bullish reversal at 0.4030. A 61.8% Fibonacci level from the 0.4415 high to the 0.4004 low aligns with 0.4135–0.4150, a potential zone for near-term resistance.

20-Period and 50-Period Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period MAs were both bearish, with price closing below both lines by 0.4057. This suggests continued short-term bearish momentum unless price breaks above 0.4075–0.4085, which could trigger a retest of the 0.4100–0.4110 zone.

MACD and RSI

The MACD turned bearish during the late ET session, with a negative histogram and a cross below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI hit oversold conditions below 30 near 0.4000–0.4010, suggesting a potential short-term bounce may occur, though it remains a high-risk bounce in a broader downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 16:00–20:00 ET session, indicating rising volatility. Price closed near the lower band at 0.4004–0.4030, which may act as a psychological support for a temporary rebound.

Volume and Turnover

Volume increased sharply after 16:00 ET, with notable turnover during the 16:45–19:45 ET window. The volume and price action aligned during the decline, supporting the bearish trend. No significant divergence was observed, suggesting the downtrend remains intact for now.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major 0.4415–0.4004 swing, the 38.2% level at ~0.4240 and the 61.8% at ~0.4135–0.4150 appear key. The 0.4135–0.4150 zone may offer resistance in the short term, while the 0.4004 level could see consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish momentum and the oversold RSI condition, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-term long bias upon a retest of the 0.4030–0.4040 zone, with a stop-loss below 0.4000 and a take-profit target at 0.4075–0.4085. This approach would aim to capitalize on a potential bounce while managing risk in a bearish market context.

Looking ahead, investors should monitor the 0.4000–0.4030 range for a potential rebound, as well as the 0.4075–0.4085 zone for signs of further bearish momentum. A break below 0.4000 could accelerate the decline toward 0.3950, while a strong move above 0.4085 could retest 0.4100–0.4110. As always, volatility remains a key risk.