CELO/USDT Market Overview: 2025-09-26

• CELO/USDT declines 4.4% over 24 hours, with a sharp pullback from 0.2566 to 0.2497.
• Volume spikes sharply during the midday sell-off, peaking at 232,678.3 USDT in a 15-minute candle.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions near 29, suggesting potential near-term rebound potential.
• Price consolidates near key support at 0.2470–0.2490 after a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
• Volatility remains high, as shown by wide swings and expanding Bollinger Bands.

Celo/Tether (CELO/USDT) opened at 0.2565 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.2566 before falling to a 24-hour low of 0.2460. At 12:00 ET, the pair closed at 0.2497, down by 2.5% from the previous session. Total volume over 24 hours was 5,420,827.0 USDT, while notional turnover reached approximately 1,348,256.6 CELO.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart reveals a bearish trend following a key breakout from a bullish ascending triangle pattern formed between 0.2550 and 0.2565. A sharp bearish reversal is evident from 16:30–17:30 ET, marked by a large bearish engulfing pattern and a doji near 0.2490. Resistance levels are forming at 0.2520–0.2540, while key supports appear at 0.2470–0.2490 and 0.2450–0.2460. A rebound from the 0.2470 level could lead to a test of the 0.2500–0.2520 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with price remaining below both. On the daily chart, CELO/USDT is trading below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, indicating a strong bearish bias. A potential bullish crossover may occur if the 20SMA crosses above the 50SMA following a bounce.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned bearish and remains in negative territory, with the histogram expanding during the midday sell-off. RSI has dropped into oversold territory around 29, which may indicate a short-term rebound is near. However, RSI has shown divergence during the afternoon session, suggesting that the bearish momentum may continue despite the oversold signal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased as the Bollinger Band width expanded from 0.0010 to 0.0040 over the past 24 hours. Price has recently tested the lower band at 0.2470–0.2490 and may find support or bounce from this level. A sustained move above the middle band could signal a short-term reversal, but the current positioning near the lower band favors bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the midday sell-off, reaching a 24-hour high of 232,678.3 USDT at 17:45 ET, confirming bearish conviction. Notional turnover increased during this period, supporting the idea that large sellers were active. A divergence between price and volume is not observed, indicating strong alignment between bearish price action and volume flow. A sustained increase in volume on a potential rebound may confirm bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels based on the 0.2566 high and 0.2460 low include 38.2% at 0.2528, 50% at 0.2513, and 61.8% at 0.2497. Price is currently consolidating near the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential turning point. A break below 0.2497 could test the 0.2470 support (23.6%), while a move above 0.2513 may target the 0.2528 and 0.2540 resistance levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI, a potential mean-reversion trade setup may exist around 0.2470–0.2490. A backtesting strategy could include entering long at 0.2497 with a stop-loss at 0.2470 and a take-profit at 0.2520. This aligns with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels and assumes a short-term rebound after the recent sell-off. Traders should remain cautious of further bearish momentum if the 0.2470 support breaks and RSI fails to rally above 30.