Cellebrite DI Surges 11% on Intraday Rally: What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• CLBT’s price rockets to $15.5548, up 11.19% from $13.99
• Intraday range spans $13.29 to $15.56, signaling sharp volatility
• Options volume spikes on 2025-09-19 and 2026-01-16 contracts

Cellebrite DI (CLBT) has ignited a dramatic intraday rally, surging 11.19% to $15.5548 as of 18:10 ET. The stock’s sharp rebound from a 52-week low of $13.1 to near $15.56 suggests a technical breakout amid oversold conditions. With options activity surging on key expiration dates and a dynamic PE ratio of 53.5, the move raises questions about catalysts and sustainability.

Technical Rebound Drives CLBT’s Sharp Intraday Surge
CLBT’s 11.19% intraday jump stems from a confluence of technical triggers. The RSI (37.23) entered oversold territory, while the MACD (-0.398) crossed above its signal line (-0.458), hinting at a short-term reversal. Price action broke above the upper Bollinger Band (14.83) and the 30-day moving average (14.35), validating a bullish breakout. High turnover (6.02% of float) and a 52-week low near support (13.1) further amplified buying pressure as traders capitalized on a potential mean reversion.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Bets
• 200-day average: 18.72 (above) • RSI: 37.23 (oversold) • MACD: -0.398 (bullish crossover) • Bollinger Bands: 13.35–14.83 (broken upper band)

CLBT’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish setup, with key resistance at $15.56 (intraday high) and $19.76 (200D MA). The 52-week high of $26.3 remains a distant target, but near-term momentum favors a retest of $15.56. Options liquidity is concentrated on the 2025-09-19 and 2026-01-16 expirations, with high-gamma contracts offering leverage.

Top Option 1: CLBT20250919C15
• Strike: $15 • Expiration: 2025-09-19 • IV: 41.90% • Leverage: 13.02% • Delta: 0.656 • Theta: -0.0207 • Gamma: 0.176 • Turnover: $44,431
IV (implied volatility) at 41.90% suggests moderate volatility expectations; leverage ratio of 13.02% amplifies returns. Delta (0.656) indicates a 65.6% probability of finishing in the money. Theta (-0.0207) reflects daily time decay, while gamma (0.176) highlights sensitivity to price swings.
Payoff: A 5% upside to $16.33 yields $1.33 per contract, or 84.85% gain.

Top Option 2: CLBT20260116C20
• Strike: $20 • Expiration: 2026-01-16 • IV: 42.59% • Leverage: 27.89% • Delta: 0.247 • Theta: -0.0053 • Gamma: 0.0726 • Turnover: $52,567
IV (42.59%) balances volatility and cost; leverage (27.89%) offers aggressive upside. Delta (0.247) suits a longer-term play. Theta (-0.0053) implies slower decay, while gamma (0.0726) ensures responsiveness to price moves.
Payoff: A 5% upside to $16.33 yields $0.00 (strike not reached), but a 15% move to $17.87 generates $2.87 per contract.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider CLBT20250919C15 for a near-term breakout play, while CLBT20260116C20 offers leveraged exposure for a multi-month rally.

Backtest Cellebrite DI Stock Performance
The backtest of CLBT's performance after a 11% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 50.37%, the 10-day win rate is 54.09%, and the 30-day win rate is 57.06%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 3.35%, which suggests that while there is a good chance of positive returns, the magnitude of those returns may be limited.

Position for a CLBT Breakout: Key Levels and Options to Watch Now
CLBT’s 11.19% intraday surge reflects a technical rebound from oversold levels, with RSI and MACD confirming momentum. The stock must hold above $14.08 (middle Bollinger Band) to sustain gains, with $15.56 (intraday high) and $19.76 (200D MA) as critical resistance targets. Options traders should monitor the CLBT20250919C15 for a short-term breakout and CLBT20260116C20 for a longer-term leveraged play. With Microsoft (MSFT) up 0.24%, sector-wide optimism could amplify CLBT’s rally. Act now: Buy CLBT20250919C15 if $15.56 holds, or short-term puts if a pullback to $13.35 reoccurs.