Celestica's Q4 Earnings: A Bullish Script, But Who's Buying the Tickets?

The script is written in bold. Celestica's fourth quarter was a blockbuster, with revenue of $3.65 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.89 crushing the high end of guidance. For the full year, the story was even stronger, with revenue up 28% and adjusted EPS soaring 56%. The bullish narrative is now being raised to a new level. CEO Rob Mionis has just lifted the 2026 outlook to $17 billion in revenue and $8.75 in adjusted EPS, citing the relentless demand from AI and cloud infrastructure. The stock's 296% gain over the past year and its trade near a 52-week high show the market has already bought the hype.

But the real signal isn't in the headline numbers or the raised guidance. It's in the alignment-or lack thereof-between management's words and their actions. The bullish script is clear, but the insider playbook tells a more cautious story. Just last year, in February 2025, CEO Rob Mionis sold a significant portion of his holdings, netting about $10.6 million from the sale of 76,000 shares. That move, executed as the stock was already climbing, stands in stark contrast to the current narrative of sustained, multi-year growth. It's a classic red flag: a CEO taking money off the table while the company is hyping its future.

The tension here is palpable. The financial results are undeniably strong, driven by a massive ramp in AI-related programs. Yet, the CEO's recent sale suggests he may not see the same long-term value in the stock that he's now publicly projecting. For the smart money, the question isn't whether the story is good-it clearly is. The question is whether the people writing the script have skin in the game, or if they're merely the lead actors in a well-rehearsed pitch. The stock's run-up shows the crowd is buying the ticket. The insider's exit hints at who might be selling the popcorn.

The Sell Signal: CEO's Record-Breaking Profit-Taking

The bullish script is loud, but the CEO's actions in February 2025 were a stark whisper. Just as the stock was riding a wave of AI optimism, CEO Rob Mionis executed a sale that stands out for its size and timing. He sold 76,000 common shares, netting approximately $10.6 million from transactions that closed as the stock neared its 52-week high. This wasn't a minor portfolio tweak; it was a major profit-taking move.

Viewed through a cynical lens, the timing screams "pump and dump" signal. The sale occurred right before the stock's explosive 296% run, which has now pushed it to a new peak. When a CEO takes such a large chunk of cash off the table just as the stock hits a major high, it raises a fundamental question: is this routine portfolio management, or is it a calculated exit before a potential slowdown? The company's own financial health score is "GREAT," but the insider's exit suggests a lack of conviction in the stock's immediate trajectory.

This sale directly tests the alignment of interest. Mionis's personal stake was reduced, leaving him with a direct holding of 456,417 shares. That's skin in the game, but it's a smaller piece of the puzzle than it was a year ago. The disconnect is clear. He's now publicly projecting multi-year growth with a raised 2026 target, yet his own wallet says "sell now." For the smart money, this is the ultimate red flag. It signals that the person writing the bullish script may not be fully betting on its continuation. When the CEO is selling into the hype, it's a classic warning sign that the crowd may be buying the top.

The Buy Signal: Contrasting Insider and Institutional Moves

The CEO's sale sets a cautionary tone, but the insider playbook isn't a monolith. There's a clear divergence in conviction. While Rob Mionis cashed out, other insiders are either buying or being rewarded with future stakes. Director Laurette T. Koellner made a notable counterpoint in October 2025, purchasing 6,000 shares at an average cost of $341.67 per share. That was a direct, non-derivative buy, a rare signal of skin in the game from the boardroom during a period of rising stock prices. It suggests at least one director saw value where the CEO was exiting.

Then there's the compensation angle. In January 2026, the company's Chief Human Resources Officer, Leila Wong, earned 61,224 performance share units (PSUs) after the board certified the achievement of aggressive goals. While this is a retention tool and a future dilution risk, it also aligns her long-term interests with the company's success. She'll receive shares only if performance targets are met, creating a direct incentive to help deliver the raised 2026 outlook. It's a bet on the future, not a sale of the present.

On the institutional side, the picture is one of concentrated, whale-like bets. While overall institutional ownership remains high at 67.38%, the real action is in the moves of a few large funds. Straight Path Wealth Management stands out, having boosted its stake by 772.3% in the third quarter. That's a massive accumulation, turning a small position into a significant one. Other funds like Farther Finance Advisors and Ballentine Partners also made substantial new or increased bets. This isn't broad-based institutional buying; it's a few smart money players seeing a setup and diving in deep.

The bottom line is a split signal. The CEO is selling, the CHRO is being rewarded with future shares, and a handful of institutional whales are buying big. For the smart money, the divergence itself is the story. When the person running the company is taking money off the table while others are buying or being granted stakes, it forces a hard look at who truly believes in the bullish script. The institutional accumulation shows conviction exists, but it's concentrated. The CEO's exit, however, remains the loudest signal in the room.

The Smart Money's Bet: What Filings Reveal

The bullish script is clear, but the smart money's bets are more nuanced. Looking past the headlines, two key signals emerge from the filings: concentrated institutional accumulation and a confident capital allocation plan.

First, the institutional picture is one of selective, whale-like bets rather than broad enthusiasm. The Fund Sentiment Score sits at a neutral 50, indicating average accumulation. Yet, a few large funds are making massive moves. Straight Path Wealth Management stands out, having boosted its stake by 772.3% in the third quarter. That's a whale wallet diving in deep, turning a small position into a significant one. Other funds like Farther Finance Advisors and Ballentine Partners also made substantial new or increased bets. This isn't the crowd buying; it's a handful of smart money players seeing a setup and placing concentrated wagers.

Second, the company's own capital allocation plan is a powerful signal of confidence. For 2026, Celestica plans a $1 billion capital expenditure budget, fully funded by operating cash flow. This isn't just spending; it's a bet on future cash generation. The funds are targeted for strategic capacity expansions in key manufacturing hubs like Texas, Thailand, Mexico, Japan, and a new design center in Taiwan. These moves are backed by new customer wins, including Google's TPU systems, which are driving the massive growth in the Connectivity & Cloud Solutions segment. The company is using its strong cash flow to build the capacity it needs to meet the AI-driven demand it's projecting.

The bottom line is a split signal from the smart money. A few institutional whales are betting big, while the broader fund sentiment remains neutral. At the same time, the company is confidently deploying its own cash to fuel growth. For the insider tracker, the divergence between the CEO's sale and these institutional bets is the story. The company's own capital allocation, however, is the clearest signal: it believes in the future cash flow needed to fund this expansion. The question for investors is whether they want to ride that bet alongside the whales or wait for more alignment from the top.

The Verdict: Alignment Test for the Smart Money

The bullish script is written in bold, but the smart money is watching the filings for the real alignment of interest. The core tension is clear: management is raising targets while the CEO is selling a massive block at highs. Rob Mionis's 76,000-share sale in February 2025, executed as the stock neared its peak, stands as the ultimate test. He took $10.6 million off the table just before the explosive run. That move screams profit-taking, not a long-term bet on the raised 2026 outlook. For the insider tracker, this is the loudest signal in the room.

Smart money is watching and making concentrated bets, but not necessarily following the CEO's lead. The broader fund sentiment remains neutral, with a Fund Sentiment Score of 50. Yet, a few institutional whales are diving in deep. Straight Path Wealth Management's 772.3% stake increase in Q3 is a massive accumulation, turning a small position into a significant one. Other funds like Farther Finance Advisors and Ballentine Partners also made substantial new bets. This isn't the crowd buying; it's a handful of players seeing a setup and placing concentrated wagers. Their moves suggest conviction in the AI-driven growth story, even as the CEO exits.

The final verdict hinges on whether this insider selling is a one-time profit-taking event or a sign of early exit, and whether institutional accumulation can sustain the momentum. The CEO's sale was large and timed perfectly with a major high. It's a classic red flag that the person writing the script may not be fully betting on its continuation. The institutional accumulation shows smart money is buying, but it's concentrated. The company's own plan to fund a $1 billion capital expenditure budget with operating cash flow is a powerful signal of confidence in future cash flow. That bet, however, is made by the board and the CFO, not the CEO who just cashed out.

In the end, the alignment test fails. The bullish thesis is supported by strong financials and institutional bets, but the CEO's massive sale undermines the narrative of unwavering conviction. For the smart money, the question isn't just about the story-it's about who has skin in the game. When the leader is selling into the hype while others buy, the smart move is to watch the divergence closely before placing your own bet.