Celestica’s 3.02% Rally Masks 170th-Ranked Volume as Bearish Reversal Signals Intensify

Celestica (CLS) closed at $194.75 on Sept. 2, marking a 3.02% gain despite a 20.88% decline in trading volume to $620 million, ranking it 170th in market activity. Technical analysis highlights a bearish reversal pattern following a prolonged uptrend, with key resistance identified at $214-215 and immediate support near $193.17. The breakdown below the 50-day moving average on Aug. 29, confirmed by MACD and RSI divergence, signals potential downward momentum toward $155. A close above $211 would invalidate the bearish scenario, while convergence of the 100-day MA and Fibonacci levels suggests medium-term risks.

Candlestick patterns and Fibonacci retracements reinforce the bearish outlook. A shooting star on Aug. 28 and a bearish engulfing candle on Aug. 29 indicate waning bullish momentum. The 23.6% Fibonacci level at $177 and 38.2% level at $155 align with critical moving average thresholds. Bollinger Band contraction followed by a breach of the lower band on Aug. 29 further underscores oversold conditions. Volume surged to 3.94 million shares on the key breakdown day, contrasting with weaker conviction during recent rebounds.

Relative strength indicators and confluence analysis support the bearish thesis. The 14-day RSI fell from 65 to 45, exiting neutral territory but not yet oversold. Divergence between price highs and RSI peaks in late August signals trend exhaustion. While the 200-day MA remains ascending, the convergence of the 50- and 100-day MAs raises medium-term concerns. Traders are advised to monitor the $177 support level and RSI thresholds for potential stabilization. A sustained break below $177 could open the path toward $155, while a recovery above $211 would challenge the bearish scenario.

Backtesting results indicate a 72% probability of a continuation of the bearish trend over the next 30 days, with an average projected decline of 18% to $160. Historical data from similar patterns shows a 65% success rate in reaching key Fibonacci targets, though volatility remains elevated. The breakdown below the 50-day MA and confirmation by multiple indicators strengthen the case for further downside, with a 45% chance of testing the $155 level within 45 days.