Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) Market Overview – October 3, 2025

• Price surged from 1.46 to 1.517, closing at 1.515 on strong volume.
• Volatility expanded in the last 6 hours with sharp swings between 1.462 and 1.517.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions, but momentum remains elevated.
• Bollinger Bands reflect recent expansion after a period of consolidation.
• High turnover of $1,667,804.57 in the last 24 hours reflects strong institutional participation.

Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) opened at 1.46 on October 2, 2025, reached a high of 1.517, and closed at 1.515 at 12:00 ET on October 3. Total volume traded was 4,880,756.79 TIA, with turnover of $7,341,725.62 in the 24-hour window. The price action reflected increasing volatility, particularly after 19:00 ET, with a sharp rally and consolidation in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern shows a bullish continuation bias, with a strong engulfing pattern forming at 1.492–1.506 and a high-volume bullish reversal at 1.506–1.517. A doji formed at 1.502, signaling temporary indecision, but buying pressure quickly resumed. The price found support at 1.462–1.475 and resistance at 1.492–1.506 before breaking through to new highs. The most recent swing high of 1.517 could form a short-term resistance if the price corrects.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (1.485) and 50-period MA (1.479) are both bullish crossovers, confirming upward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (1.471), 100-period MA (1.468), and 200-period MA (1.465) suggest a strong bullish bias, with the price comfortably above all key moving averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is positive and trending upward, with a strong bullish crossover occurring at 1.496. The RSI stands at 64 (15-min) and 66 (daily), indicating overbought territory but without showing signs of exhaustion. The RSI divergence between 15-min and daily charts appears to confirm momentum, suggesting the rally could extend further into the 1.530–1.550 range.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded in the last 8 hours, indicating heightened volatility. The price traded near or above the upper band for most of the last 3 hours, reflecting strong bullish momentum. A pullback to the middle band at 1.495–1.500 would likely be met with buying support, while a retest of the lower band at 1.465–1.470 may trigger a bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply from 508,000 TIA at 13:30 ET to 609,152 TIA at 14:30 ET, confirming the breakout above 1.506. The highest notional turnover occurred between 14:30 ET and 16:00 ET, amounting to $1.67M in the 15-minute period. The volume-to-price alignment is strong, with no significant divergence observed, suggesting institutional participation and conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci levels are:- 38.2% at 1.506- 61.8% at 1.495
- 78.6% at 1.487

These levels align with recent support and resistance zones, with the 1.495 and 1.506 areas showing strong price reactions. A retest of the 1.495 level is expected to trigger further buying if the price holds above it.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price behavior and strong volume confirmation at key Fibonacci and moving average levels, a long bias could be tested using a 20-period EMA crossover strategy on the 15-minute chart, with entries triggered above the upper Bollinger Band and a 1.495–1.500 stop-loss level. This approach would align with the observed breakout pattern and could be backtested to confirm its effectiveness in volatile conditions.