Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined from 1.035 to 1.018 over 24 hours amid heavy volume.
• Momentum reversed from overbought to neutral as RSI dropped below 50.
• Volatility expanded early before compressing; price settled near the lower Bollinger Band.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed on 19:45–20:00 ET, indicating a short-term top.
• Volume surged during the morning selloff, confirming bearish momentum.

The Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) pair opened at 1.027 on 2025-11-09 12:00 ET and closed at 0.995 on 2025-11-10 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 1.084 and a low of 0.993 during the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 21.1 million TIA, with a notional turnover of $20.4 million. The price action suggests a bearish consolidation following a sharp intraday correction.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a distinct bearish reversal pattern forming around 19:45–20:00 ET, with a bearish engulfing candle indicating a potential short-term top. The pair has since pulled back to near support at 1.005–1.010, where previous lows acted as potential re-entry zones. A key resistance level appears to be forming near 1.035, which has previously capped upward momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both turned downward as the trend shifted. The 20 SMA is now below the 50 SMA, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, price remains below all key moving averages, including the 50, 100, and 200-day lines, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 20:00–21:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram has been shrinking as the move continues, suggesting the downward pressure may be easing. RSI has dropped from overbought territory (75–80) to neutral levels (~50), indicating potential for a corrective bounce. However, it has not reached oversold levels, so the downtrend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early hours as price broke out of a narrow consolidation range. Price has since settled near the lower Bollinger Band, which now acts as a potential support zone. A close below 1.000 could trigger a further extension toward 0.980, with a potential retracement target at 0.995 (38.2% Fibonacci level from the 1.035 high).

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning sell-off from 1.05 to 1.03 and again in the early afternoon, confirming the bearish momentum. Turnover was uneven, with lower turnover observed in the latter half of the day despite continued price weakness. This suggests a potential exhaustion of the downward move, though confirmation via a bullish reversal pattern would be needed.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute retracement from 1.084 to 1.046 suggests a potential bounce toward 1.05–1.06. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level is now at 1.005, aligning with recent support levels. A break above 1.035 would target the 50% level at 1.05, but such a move appears unlikely without a catalyst.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical indicators observed—especially the bearish engulfing pattern and bearish crossover in the MACD—align with a potential backtesting strategy. The proposed approach involves identifying bearish engulfing patterns on daily or 4-hour charts and exiting at a confirmed swing-low pivot. Given the strong bearish momentum observed in the 24-hour data, a backtest of this strategy could reveal the viability of short-term bearish trades on TIAUSDT. The pair’s liquidity and volume characteristics make it well-suited for such a strategy, particularly with the presence of clear swing-levels and defined support/resistance zones. Testing from November 2023 through mid-2025 would allow for a thorough assessment of performance under different market conditions.